15 changes in 2016 that shaped Pakistan’s development path

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(Image: Flickr user junaidrao, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Shehryar Nabi

Whether you are a pessimist or an optimist about the future, 2016 was indisputably a pivotal year for the world. Here’s a recap of the changes both in and out of Pakistan in 2016 that will affect its development path:

1. Poverty was re-defined

The poverty rate increased significantly this year after the government updated its own methodology for determining poverty, and found that 30 percent of Pakistanis are poor.

The United Nations Development Programme also released Pakistan’s first-ever multidimensional poverty index, which uses non-wealth indicators such as education and health to measure poverty. Using this method, Pakistan’s poverty rate comes to 39 percent.

The good news is that no matter the measure, the poverty rate has been declining overtime, albeit unevenly across different regions.

As argued here, efforts to re-define poverty indicate a willingness to adapt the measure for better anti-poverty interventions. This means that more poor people living above the official poverty line can be targeted by poverty reduction efforts.

2. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor became functional

The first Chinese ship docked at Gwadar port to receive goods transported along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) for sale in global markets, opening CPEC to international trade. The government estimates that the $54 billion Chinese investment in infrastructure and energy will create 800,000 jobs and boost Pakistan’s GDP growth rate from its current 4.7 percent to 7 percent in 2018.

But CPEC enthusiasts shouldn’t express their jubilation at the initial investment alone. The transformative effects of CPEC will only be felt if regions adopt policies to accommodate it, and local entrepreneurs seize the opportunity.

CPEC is also tightening Pakistan and China’s military relationship, raising eyebrows in India.

3. More protections for women were legislated

Two bills giving women greater legal protection from physical and sexual violence were passed in 2016.

In February, the Punjab assembly passed the Protection of Women Against Violence Act, which expands the kinds of actions women can report as violence and establishes a process for reporting abuse, protecting victims and bringing cases to court.

In October, parliament passed anti-honor killing and anti-rape bills. The new laws prevent the victim’s family from forgiving the perpetrator of an “honor killing” (unless the perpetrator is sentenced to a capital punishment) and, for rape cases, set a three-month time limit for determining verdicts, require DNA testing as evidence and impose a minimum prison sentence of 25 years for the offender.

The Protection of Women Against Violence Act was criticized by the Council of Islamic Ideology as being un-Islamic and unconstitutional.

Activists praised the bills as a step in the right direction, but there is concern that the laws do not go far enough and lack proper implementation.

4. The International Monetary Fund ended its stabilization program

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) ended its US $6.7 billion, three year stabilization program that increased Pakistan’s foreign reserves enough for four months of imports, reduced its deficit from 8 to 4.3 percent and maintained a steady outlook for economic growth.

While Pakistan is safe from an external shock to its economy for now, the IMF may come back if necessary reforms to make Pakistan resilient to global economic shifts are delayed for too long.

5. Relations soured with Afghanistan . . .

Continued criticism from Afghan President Ashraf Ghani that Pakistan has not done enough to prevent cross-border terrorism, skirmishes at the Khyber Pass and plans to deport 3 million Afghan refugees could further slowdown Pakistan and Afghanistan’s trade relationship and hurt regional cooperation.

6. . . . and India

The glimmer of hope for India-Pakistan relations established after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore quickly faded when terrorists allegedly based in and supported by Pakistan killed seven Indian soldiers and one civilian at Pathankot air force base, 19 soldiers at Uri and seven soldiers at Nagrota in India-administered Kashmir.

Anti-India sentiment was also inflamed in Pakistan after the Indian army cracked down on Kashmiri protesters, killing 89 and causing eye damage to thousands, many of whom became permanently blind.

Bollywood banned Pakistani actors, and Pakistan banned Bollywood films (until recently). India carried out “surgical strikes” against terrorists in Pakistan – although official and civilian narratives of the strikes differ. There were more cross-border firings between Pakistani and Indian soldiers. The Indus Waters Treaty came under threat.

While improved India-Pakistan relations are desirable for expanding trade, cultural exchanges and preventing war, the events of 2016 do not bode well.

7. Pakistan became Asia’s best-performing stock market

The Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad stock exchanges merged into the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), which became Asia’s best-performing stock market with an increased value of 27 percent.

Recently, a Chinese-led consortium acquired a 40 percent stake in the PSX, with the hopes of drawing more Chinese investment into Pakistan’s economy.

8. The Panama Papers changed politics

The anti-corruption agenda spearheaded by the leading opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), was bolstered by the Panama Papers investigation that revealed Nawaz Sharif’s children as among the global rich and powerful who hold large offshore accounts.

While there is currently no evidence that the money was extracted through corrupt means, the issue has become a thorn in the side of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) for the 2018 election. With a PMLN victory, voters can expect a continuation of the energy-expanding, infrastructure-building focus of development policy. But if the Panama issue remains potent, securing a PTI win, Pakistan may change course.

9. Pakistan became committed to global CO2 reduction targets

In November, Pakistan ratified the Paris Agreement, which commits countries to reduced CO2 emissions targets. Pakistan also passed the Climate Change Bill 2016, which proposes measures for mitigating the effects of climate change. However, having different ministries implement the measures will be a separate, though important challenge given the threats climate change poses to flood risk, food security and the overall economy.

10. Power generation costs continued to fall

Lower global oil prices and the expansion of wind, hydel, coal, solar and nuclear power projects have made power generation much cheaper, as seen by a recent 50 percent cost reduction in November. Energy costs will likely fall even further if more power companies are privatized, and CPEC energy investments are made next year. The government is hoping that by the 2018 election, regular blackouts will end. However, if power losses from transmission and distribution and inefficient energy usage are not addressed, blackouts will likely return.

11. Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure

New highways. Upgraded railroads. Metro lines. Pakistan’s push for modern infrastructure intensified in 2016.

There is a view that the government is giving infrastructure too much focus and, as a consequence, neglecting the education and health sectors. Others argue that better infrastructure is a form of economic justice.

12. Polio moved closer to eradication

In 2014, there were 306 new cases of polio in Pakistan, a significant increase from preceding years. In response, the government began carrying out regular vaccination drives. This year, only 22 new cases of polio were reported.

The final push to complete eradication still poses challenges, as health workers administering vaccines are threatened by attacks and outdated systems for managing anti-polio drives could leave some children unvaccinated.

13. A cure for Hepatitis C became more affordable

According to Pakistan’s health ministry, about 8 million Pakistanis have Hepatitis C, and 80,000 die from the disease every year. The most effective treatment for the disease is the drug sofosbuvir, but unless a local pharmaceutical company has the rights to produce a generic version, it costs US $1,000 per pill.

This year, the Pakistani pharmaceutical Ferozsons acquired those rights and began manufacturing the drug to be sold at a slashed price of $56 for 28 doses. While poor sanitation and dirty needle use will likely keep Hepatitis C prevalence high, the availability of a low-cost treatment will undoubtedly save lives.

14. A program to reduce malnourishment began 

With the support of the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, Pakistan launched a food fortification program to fight malnourishment. 44 percent of Pakistani children under five have stunted growth from malnutrition, slowing their cognitive ability and increasing their susceptibility to disease. The program will add micronutrients to flour and edible oils with the hopes that in five years, they will be consumed by over half of the population.

15. The West saw a historic political shift

Pakistan will likely feel the effects of the major political and economic changes in the West: the election of Donald Trump to the United States presidency, Britain’s exit from the European Union and the rise of political parties that favor less trade, less foreign aid and less immigration.

Pakistan may be caught in an awkward position vis-à-vis relations with China and the US if they engage in a trade war, foreign aid could decline and discouraged Pakistani migrants in the West might cause a drop in remittances.

These possibilities and more will be examined in greater detail for a future post.

Shehryar Nabi works in communications for the Consortium for Development Policy Research (CDPR) and the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives (IDEAS)

Understanding and responding to disadvantage in education

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(Image: DFID – UK Department for International Development)

Rabea Malik

Recent policy reform efforts in Pakistan have given immediate priority to the enrollment of out-of-school children, retention of those at high risk of dropping out and ensuring learning gains for those in school. Data are required for understanding who is benefiting, who is excluded, links between teaching, learning and disadvantage and ways in which reforms impact classrooms, schools and communities.

Children from poor households – particularly girls from poor households – and children with disabilities are much more likely to be at risk of dropping out or never entering school at all. Children from poor backgrounds are likely to face considerable learning challenges while they remain in school.

Also high on the policy agenda is teacher effectiveness, which plays a crucial part in increasing student enrollment and ensuring classrooms are inclusive of all backgrounds. Policy research over the past couple of decades has made it clear that experience and qualifications alone cannot explain why some teachers are more effective than others. Pedagogical expertise (classroom practice), teacher attitudes and motivation matter most for student learning and engagement. These are also areas with the most significant data gaps.

Current sources of data and gaps in data

A number of survey-based and administrative data sources are available and being used for monitoring teaching and learning, and in some cases for policy responses. A mapping of existing data sources, undertaken as part of the background work for Teaching Effectively All Children (TEACh), reveals a long list of sources with information on relevant variables:

Surveys Gender Income/wealth Disability Learning Teacher experience /qualifications Teacher attitudes /practices
Pakistan Social &Living Standards Measurement (PSLM)
Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES)
Neilsen survey (McKinsey)
Punjab Examination Commission (PEC)
Directorate of Staff Development (DSD)
Education Management Information System (EMIS)
Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) **
Learning & Educational Achievement in Punjab Schools (LEAPS)
Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) **
 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS)
Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA)
Teaching Effectively All Children (TEACh)

Note: ** Surveys piloted tools for identifying disability

The mapping also reveals some gaps. Sources that collect information on individual/household socio-economic characteristics (such as Pakistan Standards of Living Measurement Survey (PSLM) or Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES)) do not collect information on learning levels. Administrative data sources that provide information from large scale standardized learning assessments do not provide student background information (such as Punjab Examination Commission results for 3rd, 5th, 8th and 10th grade, and the more recent Sindh Assessment Tests, as well as the monthly assessments undertaken by the Directorate for Staff Development in Punjab). Those that collect information on both learning and disadvantage (such as LEAPS, ASER), do not collect data on teacher attitudes and pedagogical practices.

The biggest gaps emerge for data on disability (inside and outside classrooms), information on teachers’ attitudes (regarding children with disabilities, those from poor backgrounds and slow learners), their level of preparedness for identifying and managing diversity in classrooms and the practices they undertake. Policy research on themes of learning, teaching and disadvantage can potentially bridge these gaps: proving missing data, and instruments for collecting data that can improve the effectiveness of policy responses.

Using data for policy impact

The silver lining is that policy makers today see the benefits of having information available to them for planning and policy design – a preference reiterated during a policy dialogue held recently in Lahore. They’re keen to – and in some ways they have already – put in place mechanisms that make available data on enrollment, teacher attendance, student attendance, school expenditures, etc. Digital dashboards highlighting key indicators and road maps tracking progress across regions are examples of such mechanisms.

However, steps can be taken to improve the effectiveness of these foundational measures. Chief among them are: 1) ensuring the right indicators are tracked, 2) data are being utilized by empowered local agents, rather than being retained centrally, and c) data help form a feedback loop between policy and practice, rather than being used exclusively for high-stakes assessments (when teachers’ promotions and appraisals are linked to trends in enrollments and assessments).

The systemic reforms needed for effective intervention

Currently, learning assessments are undertaken every month in government schools to inform teacher appraisals and school rankings by comparing students across schools, communities and regions. These comparisons do not consider student background or information on other challenges the child might be facing. Local education departments currently do not track children at risk of dropping out or those who need special attention in schools. A mechanism for systematic identification of learning challenges and other disabilities at scale is currently not in place.

Assessments can be restructured to track improvements in the same children over time. Information on teacher attitudes and practices, as well as the challenges they face, can inform the design and focus of support mechanisms (such as in-service training and school resource decisions). Internationally developed and validated survey modules that help identify the nature and severity of disability for all children in and out of school can provide accurate numbers for planning.

The ultimate goal should be to use the information to inform change in practice. An effective policy-practice feedback loop requires making information and authority to act on information available to local decision makers. In other words, it is important to make sure the data are used in a way that empowers teachers and school leaders, and enables them to change their practice willingly rather than being utilized for high-stakes accountability.

Rabea Malik is a research fellow at the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives (IDEAS)