Category: Blog

The Covid-19 pandemic has come as an unprecedented shock to global social and economic systems with  significant cross-sectoral impacts. But not everyone has been equally affected by this, leading to a pattern of recovery from the pandemic which is unequal and inconsistent. While the health consequences of the pandemic are obvious, developmental impacts are less evident and indicate a larger long-term threat to inequality. Not only has suffering, poverty and vulnerability risen, income inequality has also gone up. Recent data shows a substantial increase in the wealth of billionaires and hence the distributional impact of covid-19 is significant. The highest income groups have experienced disproportionately high-income growth rates while the poor continue to suffer. This blog highlights key aspects of such inequality in a post-covid world and what governments must consider to mitigate or reduce its impact especially on the poor, marginalised and vulnerable.

A worsening situation

Even before the onset of the pandemic, inequality was an important policy concern for policymakers, donors and academics. However, Covid-19 has necessitated swift and immediate action to address inequality worsened by the pandemic. Tackling inequality is not straightforward as it is becoming exceedingly difficult to define what all it entails. Inequality is inherently a multidimensional and complex concept.

In most recessions the poor tend to be at a disproportionately higher risk and the recession brought on by the pandemic has been no different. It has decimated certain segments while leaving other segments completely unscathed. However, the economic impact of the recession caused by Covid-19 is unique in many ways. Prior to the pandemic, the poor had actually been performing better than the middle class in terms of economic growth, but the top 1% has done incredibly well and that is what creates most of this disparity.

The Covid-19 case is unique as the disease and the cure (including containment measures) both   adversely affect inequality. The elderly and people in high density areas (mostly poor) are more likely to be impacted by the health shock caused by the disease. Even the initial mitigating measures in the form of social protection handouts, emergency cash transfers and deferred utility payments etc, rolled out mostly in a blanket form, had a varying impact on the different segments of the population based on their pre-existing capabilities to withstand shocks. The on-going vaccine rollout also remains unequal as richer countries have overall higher access than developing countries, while within countries those residing in cities and with access to government facilities are getting vaccinated earlier on. Across these multiple facets of inequality each reinforcing the other, a pressing concern remains that their impact may compound in an exponential manner resulting in a massive rise in inequality.

The multiple dimensions of inequality and covid-19

The pandemic has impacted inequality in various manners and across multiple phases. We can classify three categories of these phases: Inequality of opportunity, inequality in the labor market and inequality stemming from state action.

Inequality of opportunity: This phase begins from inception where the circumstances of one’s birth dictate the opportunities they can access particularly in terms of health and education which are in part also dictated by geography. Such inequalities have worsened significantly due to the pandemic, particularly evident in the case of education where access to online schooling is unequal, whereas education delivery has become a major challenge due to lockdowns. And while the quality of education has suffered across all types of schools (public and private), it has been much worse for children from poor households. Children from more affluent backgrounds living in more infrastructurally developed areas have been able to continue their education due to availability of internet connectivity and multiple technological devices that have allowed children to attend online classes. The same is not true for their poorer, more rural counterparts. Access to education also has a gender dimension. It is predicted that 11 million girls might not go back to school post Covid-19. Such disparities in early opportunities can manifest in adult lives, making individuals less productive members of the society. .

Inequality in the labour market: Educational background is a key determinant of the kind of employment one is eligible for and for an individual’s bargaining power in the labour market. The pandemic has exacerbated existing disparities in employment. The ability to work from home is highly correlated with education and “pre-pandemic” earnings, and while daily wage earners have lost jobs and incomes, the richer segment has been better able to adapt to the changing job landscape. Typically, inequality in the labour market is most evident  across the urban rural divide. However, Covid-19 has impacted the urban centres significantly more than rural areas due to the nature of the disease and how it spreads. But within urban areas, it is the informal/daily wage earners and fixed salary workers with low-education qualifications associated with industries impacted by lockdown that remain most vulnerable to its impact. Hence increasing income inequality within urban areas.

Inequality stemming from state actions: The government has a responsibility to create a more equitable society. One way to do that is to ensure redistribution of wealth and earnings within society. There are various tools to help achieve this such as tax, transfer and expenditure policies that also include social protection measures. However, policymakers face several challenges in reaching out to those most impacted by Covid-19. Cash transfer programs such as the one under ehsaas Pakistan usually has a minimum threshold and criteria for eligible recipients, yet the segment most impacted by the pandemic includes daily wagers and the service sector in urban areas not targeted by the programs. This segment of the population is generally not ultra poor and often do not meet the selection criteria of such social protection programs. Hence, when shocks such as  Covid-19 occur it becomes difficult to rapidly and effectively target the needy.

More than growth

Good economic growth has the ability to insulate an economy and absorb negative shocks. However, growth alone is not enough, instead needs to be inclusive. This can be achieved by building strong social security systems.

Subsidies are used as a mechanism for redistribution and until recently, was the only tangible means for the public to verify what the government was doing for them. Now there are other, more efficient, ways to achieve this. Direct cash transfers, especially when done digitally, have enormous potential and significantly reduce the risk of leakages and wastages associated with subsidies. Yet huge amounts of subsidies are built into Pakistan’s budget and  the political economy of making radical changes to/reforming subsidy programs remains extremely complex. Hence, adopting large scale transfer programs in lieu of subsidies remains easier said than done.

Data Challenges

It is exceedingly difficult to quantify the magnitude of the impact of Covid-19 on income inequality due to the complexity of inequality and government structures which through redistribution and support policies can alter the spread of wealth within society. The problem is compounded by the lack of data which has become difficult to collect due to the pandemic. Hence accurate estimates about the impact cannot be made. The government needs to come up with rapid effective data collection strategies reliant on spatial and real time data – such as night lights data, mobile and satellite data – to promote more dynamic means of gathering information to inform policy such as the data collection done for Togo’s cash transfer program.  The one key learning from the pandemic has revealed the immense potential of the digital space. To realise this potential, access to the internet is essential. Governments should work to provide good stable internet connection at affordable prices.

A changing lens: from inequality to vulnerability

Growth covers up many of the imperfections in economies but due to the pandemic there hasn’t been any growth, rather many economies have gone into a very steep recession and with this recession many gaps and fractures in service delivery have become more pronounced. Many people have become newly vulnerable. The best way to deal with shocks like Covid-19 is by insuring against them and addressing vulnerabilities.. The concept of resilience is of extreme importance. The ability to bounce back from shocks requires more attention which is why the focus should shift from inequality in terms of poverty statistics and income measures to mitigating vulnerability. If every individual is equipped to fend for themselves and their families in adverse times, it can  eventually lead to a reasonably more equal society.

What it all boils down to

A key takeaway from the current pandemic is that the underlying persistent inequality needs to be effectively addressed to make countries more resilient to external shocks. Growth may be key to achieving this as growth has the ability to mask many of the stresses and imperfections in the economy, but while growth is the basis, the true antidote to inequality lies in effectual and well thought out distribution strategies. Governments must take this opportunity to invest in development.

Emun Hafeez is a Research Associate at the Consortium for Development Policy Research.

In low-income countries, the role of the judiciary in mitigating the effects of climate change often faces significant hurdles in resources, capacity, and political will. In Pakistan, however, the establishment of several judicial commissions are tackling these challenges by supporting climate research, developing proactive approaches to climate issues, and creating institutional frameworks to guide future action. This article highlights the state of environmental degradation and pollution in Pakistan, and traces the creation and successes of the various judicial commissions working to protect the environment.

The world has witnessed an explosion in climate change litigation since 2015, highlighting the role that effective judiciaries need to play in advancing climate action. In Pakistan, having realised that pertinent environmental issues in the country are not being effectively tackled, the judiciary is making concerted efforts to come to the government’s aid to ensure citizen wellbeing and safety. What began as a public interest litigation via a writ petition filed in 2018 (a type of legal tool for protecting citizens’ rights) has led to the creation of several judicial commissions which are making significant headway in affecting progress on environmental justice.

Pakistan’s judiciary steps up

A first-of-its-kind judiciary-government collaboration established the first commission, the Judicial Water Commission (JWC), in February 2019, and was set up by Mr. Justice Shahid Karim of the Lahore High Court (LHC), under the Chairmanship of Mr. Justice (Retd) Ali Akbar Qureshi. The JWC was initially created for the primary purpose of conserving groundwater levels and quality in Lahore, but its scope widened over time. A separate Judicial Environmental Commission (JEC) was later established and over time the two commissions became a joint Judicial Water & Environmental Commission (JWEC) overseeing the country’s key environmental issues.

Outside of high-income countries, the role of the judiciary in climate litigation is often limited and faces significant hurdles in resources, capacity, and politics. In spite of this, progress has continued and Pakistan is not alone in the region in advancing this type of judicial activism. India has engaged since the 1980s, where the judiciary successfully intervened in matters relating to improper drainage and toxic gas leakages in Madhya Pradesh, extractive mining in Uttar Pradesh, water pollution of the Ganga (River Ganges), and several other cases. In Bangladesh, while environmental courts have been established, further work needs to be done to ensure that they are proactive and fit for purpose.

The nexus of judicial activism and research
The JWEC Commission is actively involved in research efforts with internationally renowned energy/environment experts around rigorous and evidence-based policymaking. One such project led by Michael Greenstone (University of Chicago), Usman Naeem (Tufts University), and Sanval Nasim (Lahore University of Management Sciences), engages with Punjab’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and has recently begun interacting with the Lahore High Court and JWEC to design and pilot a study on emissions rating programmes to incentivise industrial plants to comply with emissions standards and maintain low levels of pollution. The study (currently underway) includes (a) third-party monitoring of firm emissions by EPA-certified emissions monitoring laboratories, (b) rating firm emissions levels using a five-point rating system, and (c) publicly releasing ratings data for selected firms via an EPA website and increasing public awareness. A key objective of this research is to assess the extent to which public disclosure of emissions ratings improves firm compliance and EPA’s enforcement capacity.

An environmental state of affairs

Pakistan faces several environmental challenges including air pollution, water pollution, and water scarcity. Today, Pakistan is amongst the top ten countries in the world identified as hotspots for climate impact – ranking eighth globally, and second-to-worst in South Asia, narrowly behind Bangladesh. Climate change will only intensify these challenges, highlighting the need for urgent action to protect the environment and its impacts on human wellbeing.

Water shortages and pollution

Reports from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) indicate that Pakistan could face absolute water scarcity by 2025 and become one of the most water stressed countries by 2040.In Punjab, 90% of the population relies on groundwater to meet daily needs. Intensive use in recent decades are leading towards depletion and other geological hazards, all the while deteriorating water quality. The construction of the Indian Madhopur and Thien Dams in 2002 has compromised the largest source of groundwater replenishment for the region, River Ravi.

On water conservation, JWEC has identified several sources of water wastage and pollution, and proposed and initiated strategies for overcoming them. By doing so it has successfully been able to conserve 23.85 million gallons of water per day and has prevented the water table levels in Lahore from further depletion. According to government data, between 2018 and 2020 the water table witnessed an insignificant drop of only 0.15 meters. Details of initiatives which have made this possible are given below.

Every drop counts

Managing Industrial Waste:

The JWEC ensured

• Installation of 73 large- and medium-sized water purifier plants at Sundar and Quaid-e-Azam Industrial estates.
• Closure of 400 industrial estates which were injecting wastewater and sewage directly into the aquifer.
• 46 sugar industries are in the process of installing treatment plants.

Reduce and Reuse:

•  Installation of 190 ablution water tanks in various housing societies, the largest of which is located at Data Darbar and has led to conservation of 192,000 gallons of water per day.
• Water wastage at car service stations has been controlled by ensuring installation of 310 Car Wash Recycling Systems.
• WASA and Lahore Development Authority were tasked to ensure domestic car washing was not done using unrestricted water supply
• 17 of the 24 irrigation channels of the Lahore Branch Canal were unclogged leading to several large parks of Lahore being irrigated using surface water instead of ground water.
• The JWEC has commissioned the construction of a rainwater harvesting plant as an underground reservoir with capacity to store 1.5 million gallons of stormwater. Stored rainwater and treated water from industries will be reused for irrigation and cleaning purposes.

Air pollution

Air pollution and smog have become additional alarming environmental challenges for Pakistan. According to the United States Air Quality Index, Lahore is now ranked as the most polluted city in the world. While the detrimental impacts of air pollution on public health and human capital are known, the implications on economic activity are still being understood. An International Growth Centre (IGC) study notes that on polluted days, human productivity can drop by an average of 6% and lists Pakistan among countries severely exposed to PM2.5, one of the most harmful air pollutants. PM2.5 concentration in Lahore is three times the WHO recommended threshold. The problem is not only a result of harmful industrial and technological practices, but is also exacerbated by governmental inertia and ineffectual policies.

The JWEC has established strategies to mitigate air pollution and limit further degradation of air quality, as detailed in the box below.

Out with the old, in with the new
A major achievement of JWEC is that all brick kilns have now been converted from traditional Bull Trench technology to newer, more energy-efficient Induced Draft Zigzag Kiln (IDZK) technology, similar to what has successfully been done in Nepal. In comparison to traditional brick kilns, IDZKs produce 25% more high-quality bricks using 30% less fuel and generating 70% less emissions. Lower emissions from IDZKs provide social welfare gains (read more about this technology and its economic and environmental benefits in this IGC study). JWEC also conducts random checks and seals, and fines any non-compliant brick kilns. Checks have also been placed on vehicular emissions (contributing 43% to smog). To control sale of substandard fuel (with high sulphur content – a major contributor to smog), 143 of 491 fuel stations inspected were sealed. JWEC also ordered closure of 233 smoke-emitting industrial units in Lahore. There is now a ban on use of polythene bags with fines levied on non-compliance. Other initiatives include sprinkling and mechanical cleaning of roads, installation of anti-smog towers on an experimental basis, imposing fines on stubble burning, and a review of the Transport Master Plan to limit traffic congestion.

Pakistan’s legal basis for environmental protection 

Environmental degradation is a violation of core human rights, affecting the health and wellbeing of individuals alongside the impact on agriculture, the economy, energy, transport, displacement, and migration. Environmental protections fall in the ambit of several UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which Pakistan is committed to achieving. Although the Constitution of Pakistan does not explicitly list the ‘right to environment’ as a fundamental right, in a 1994 landmark judgement (Shehla Zia vs. WAPDA) the Supreme Court held that the right to a clean and healthy environment was part of the fundamental right to life and dignity guaranteed in Articles 9 and 14 of the Constitution.

Building on the precautionary principle from the Shehla Zia case, a framework of environmental law and justice has evolved which led to climate justice in the 2015 Asghar Leghari case and 2021 D.G. Khan Cement case, further evidencing how judicial support for the environment is of instrumental value. The court is not only concerned with the preservation of human rights of present generations, but with the importance of ensuring intergenerational climate justice.

Way forward 

The JWEC should take measures to spread its reach beyond Lahore and target other cities across Pakistan. Given the magnitude of the environmental threat to the population and the country’s economic development needs, the successes of this new and larger nexus of government, judiciary, and academia must be heralded and ardently promoted. However, institutional efforts and academia must be supported by individual behaviours and actions. Going forward, we must educate ourselves on how to be better, more conscientious citizens of the planet.

This article originally appeared on the International Growth Centre’s (IGC) website here.

Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has undergone significant changes in the past two decades. These changes have been at multiple levels across economic, social and political dimensions resulting in a profound impact on the province’s long-term economic stability and growth. The 18^th Amendment has led to a greater transfer of resources along with the autonomy to spend on its own development needs across provinces. Investments under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have resulted in further spending on massive infrastructure development in KP with the potential to change its economic landscape. PTI’s re-election to the province in 2018 led to a much-needed political continuity with potentially positive impact on the progress of development projects. However, the merger of FATA into KP has added to the provincial government’s responsibilities to cater to a region that is largely rural and underdeveloped with implications on budgetary outlays.

Changes in population demographics and urban landscape are also impacting KP. Pakistan has the highest rate of urbanization in South Asia with 36.4% of its entire population now residing in cities. A fifth of all Pakistanis live in just 10 cities across the country. As per the last census, KP has grown by 2.89%, second only to Baluchistan. Yet, the province has had the lowest level of urbanization across Pakistan with only 18.77% of its population living in cities, much lower than the national average. Overall, only 7.8% of the country’s total urban population resides in KP.

In this context, what can be the role of KP’s cities in supporting provincial growth and development? What kind of economic growth can the province experience and how can urban KP stimulate the provincial economy?

State of Urban KP

Multiple bottlenecks are impeding the development of KP’s cities. These include inefficient urban land-use, poor accessibility, coverage and quality of public service delivery, massive spatial disparities, and overconcentration of economic activity in some regions of KP, such as domination by the Peshawar valley region. These factors have affected KP’s economic performance but must be addressed by the provincial government to realize the true potential of its human and natural resources and drive its urban economy.

Rising Urban Population and Socio-Economic Disparities across Districts

KP’s rising urban population presents a substantial hurdle in achieving social welfare goals set by the government for its citizens. More people are flocking to KP’s cities and widening rural-urban population disparities. This is leading to the creation of high and low growth clusters. For example, KP now has four major urban centers: Mardan, Nowshera, Charsadda and Peshawar, all clustered together. Not only does this region have a high urban population, but there is great disparity in development and welfare levels compared to other clusters such as the Dera Ismail Khan region.

KP’s urban sprawl is also high in addition to being haphazard and ill-planned. More than two thirds (66%) of its population is just an hour away from the city while a whopping 90% is two hours away. Such spatial disparities remain a challenge for the government as lagging districts become disconnected from the high growth Peshawar cluster, becoming more prone to reduced social cohesion and an increased risk of conflict. This disparity can be illustrated by how each of the top four districts, not surprisingly from the Peshawar cluster, contribute approximately 3,500 students enrolled in bachelors level programs. However, there are 18 districts, in other regions of KP, that account for less than 1000 students.

Uneven Economic Activity Across KP

Level of industrialization varies greatly across the province, revealing disparity among the regions. Of the 2,247 functioning industrial units in KP, 647 are in Peshawar alone. In contrast, there are only two industrial units in Shangla and four in Hangu, and this is another reason why the industrial labour force is most likely to migrate to the greater Peshawar region. There is also great variation in levels of urbanization (45.5% in Peshawar vs 0% in Bajaur), population density (1,623 people per sq. km in Peshawar vs only 30 in Chitral) and per capita energy consumption (422 kWh per person in Nowshera vs 138 kWh in Lower Dir).

On all development outcomes, newly merged districts of the former FATA region are lagging behind by large margins as a vast majority of their population lives in rural conditions. This presents opportunities for economic growth but also challenges in building-up human capital, stimulating investments and generating employment.

By developing policies that are mindful of these factors, reform measures can help create a future where KP’s cities can become hubs of innovation for businesses, offering higher quality of life for citizens and enabling equitable economic growth that is inclusive of all regions of the province.

Poor Public Service Delivery Coverage, Quality and Accessibility

KP is stressed for resources to provide adequate service delivery to its citizens and this issue is compounded by a rising population. Lack of adequate amenities is contributing to low human development. Only 54% of KP’s population is connected to the water supply. Shortage of housing units have given rise to slums and speculative land and unregulated markets. Presently, almost half of the provincial population is impoverished in terms of education, health and living standards, while unemployment rate at 7.2% remains the highest amongst all provinces The HDI of the newly merged areas lags far behind the national and provincial average.

Such inequality and disparities in growth can cripple cities and pose serious economic and political challenges for the government in power. These challenges call for a robust urban policy that puts human development to the forefront and ensures equitable gains as cities need to become productive and inclusive centres of growth.

How has the KP Government responded to these challenges?

The GoKP has in recent years prioritized the welfare of its cities by way of CPEC related development investments with the hope that such setting up of new industries, power generation plants, and rail and road infrastructure projects will generate employment for the burgeoning local population and help alleviate poverty across KP.

The path from industrialization and CPEC investments to social welfare as envisioned by the government lies through cities and targeted interventions in urban policy. Cities will need to be at the heart of KP’s economic development and be able to provide its urban dwellers high quality and efficient public services such as water, sanitation, waste management, traffic control, and housing. This will in turn raise the quality of life of its citizens and labour productivity.

Functioning Local Government

Devolution of powers from the federal to the local level plays a crucial role in the economic development of communities. Local governments are central to provision of l physical infrastructure such as water supply, waste and sanitation facilities, and public health and education at the community level. However local governments can become dynamic cogs in the economic machinery of cities. Through their grassroot networks of entrepreneurs and investors, local governments can create local business opportunities and integrate the economies of smaller communities with the broader economy of the city and province. Functioning local government can also allow cities to take charge of their revenue and spending streams

However, to achieve this, cities must be empowered to take ownership of themselves and their economic development. In this context, lack of autonomous local bodies can impact development of the province at large whereas funding of development projects at local levels remains difficult without involvement of local bodies. The lack of local government elections has been a stumbling block in this regard, despite GoKP’s advocacy on this issue. The recent directive by the Election Commission of Pakistan to hold local bodies election in the provinces is a positive step in this regard and when it finally goes through, it should open up opportunities for local communities to integrate into the larger economy.

Regional Disparity

The GoKP is also cognizant of high levels of rural-urban migration and ensuing disparity between districts. The provincial government is now actively trying to develop low development districts to ensure population outflow from such regions is controlled and these districts can be made into self-sustaining, independent and thriving economies. The provincial government is also giving special attention to the tourism industry in the smaller districts of KP, to enable them to generate a thriving economy for such regions. Self-sustained economies of such regions will reduce the need for the locals to migrate to other regions in search of economic prosperity.

Land Use

KP’s government is also targeting the spread of slums and private housing societies and markets operating without proper amenities. In the absence of a building control authority, the spread of low-quality housing and slums remains unchecked. The government is pushing for a bill on building control and land use authority in KP that will operate at all local levels to ensure each district has its own land use plan. This authority will work in conjunction with local governments and grant approval to all future infrastructure projects in the districts. Any proposed changes that violate the plans will not be allowed to go through.

What Next?

The foundations for a prosperous KP are there but realizing its true potential requires a targeted push at the policy level.

This potential cannot be achieved without complementary investments to mega projects targeted for growth. The government must ensure adoption of new technologies and business management practices that improve business climate to international standards. If greater political stability can be achieved, then top-down support to local entrepreneurial levels can pave the way forward for growth. Consistent policy decisions can ensure fairness and competitiveness in the system which can also bring in foreign investment.

Local economic bodies and local governments need to be empowered to allow cities to make their own economic policy decisions. Local governments can identify competitive advantages at the district level and pursue investments accordingly.

Governance and institutional structures also need to be revised and adapted to ensure integration on economic development policies across all levels of government This requires greater coordination amongst all departments and their ability to bring unique expertise on board. Coordination and partnerships are essential not only at the departmental level but also amongst the government, bureaucracy, academia, civil society and business to formulate an evidence base for informed decision making. Effective service delivery is also related to empowered local government institutions where municipal authorities are able to exercise control over service delivery units.

Sheheryar Khan is a Communications Assistant at the Consortium for Development Policy Research (CDPR).

Development Challenges in Balochistan

Over the past several years, Balochistan has remained the bedrock of Pakistan’s long-term national economic vision. It is the country’s largest province by area – equal to the size of both Punjab and Sindh combined – and has been endowed with abundant natural resources in the form of land, fossil fuels and minerals. It is the largest supplier of natural gas in Pakistan, and there is significant potential to develop wind energy resources. The province is also home to three-fourths of the country’s coastline, and as a frontier province, it is ideally suited to become a hub for major regional trade routes across Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the Persian Gulf.

However, despite its strategic location and resources, the province remains Pakistan’s poorest and most underdeveloped region with economic outcomes far below targets set in the long-term vision. Almost 71% of Balochistan’s households, against a national average of 37%, are classified as poor. Four of the five poorest districts across Pakistan are in Balochistan. Moreover, an array of conflicts – tribal, sectarian, and ethnonationalist – have also emerged in the last two decades, plunging parts of the province into chronic instability.

A major obstacle to growth in Balochistan is its small population spread over a very large area of land. A low population density and difficult terrain has both increased the per unit cost of service delivery and posed administrative challenges. The only major city in the province is Quetta, which faces rapid and unsustainable urbanization due to an increase in migration into the city. Development efforts in turn have contributed to the increasing intra-Balochistan regional inequality.

The province’s strategic vision and planning processes need to be revisited given this context and in light of four major recent national developments –  a) enhanced autonomy and increased fiscal space for provinces following the 18^th amendment and the 7^tH National Finance Commission award[1], b) roll out of the Benazir Income Support program to strengthen country-wide social protection and its scaling up via Ehsaas, c) launch of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a framework of regional connectivity and development of Gwadar as a port city, and d) COVID-19’s impact on the economy, and the resultant need to enhance social protection, as well as the need to maintain supply chains, food security, and livelihoods while ensuring adequate economic activity.

A new approach to planning?

To address Balochistan’s core development challenges, any new approach towards planning should be guided by a spatially anchored data-driven framework that links public spending with territorial and spatial realities. Spending decisions based on a such an approach are likely to be more inclusive and integrated. In a fiscally constrained environment, such a strategy will not only help policymakers make the right decisions for relevant regions but also identify the most optimum use of resources to achieve intended outcomes.

Spatial strategies provide a long-term vision and framework for integrated spatial development to boost public investment efficiency, urban growth, and economic development. These enable better transnational and regional connections, optimize the use of existing infrastructure, reduce peripherality, and serve regional balancing imperatives. Specifically, a spatial strategy provides direction for growth along four inter-connected axes: (1) an infrastructure axis, focusing on transportation and logistics, 2) an economic development axis, with an emphasis on infrastructure and economic development, 3) an urbanization axis, offering guidance for urban development, 4) an institutional axis, focusing on institutional arrangements and issues of capacity.[2]

In line with the rest of the country, many public investment decisions have in the past often been politically driven which were not well-aligned with real development needs across different regions and sectors. A key reason for this is the lack of an integrated approach towards planning which is sensitive to the development needs of the province.

The current approach is distinctly sectoral/departmental and can be wasteful. Without the buy-in of other departments, even the most well-meaning strategy will be suboptimal. One such example is when, in a bid to enhance literacy, the Government of Balochistan (GOB) focused on increasing the number of schools without taking into account other more important factors that affected literacy among 70% of children aged 5-16 that are out of school in Balochistan (compared to a national average of 44%). Building more schools is likely to have little impact on literacy unless the reasons that prevent children from attending school and dropping out in the first place are addressed. These include factors such as a high incidence of diarrheal illness amongst children due to unsafe drinking water and poor sanitation. This is a classic case of how investments in one sector (water and sanitation) can improve outcomes in another sector (education) and need an integrated policymaking process to make the best decision, especially when resources are limited.

The last detailed economic report for the province, “Balochistan Economic Report: From Periphery to Core” in 2008 was a joint effort by the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank, and the GoB. This was followed by the Comprehensive Development Strategy (2013-20) developed with support from the UNDP. While comprehensive in their coverage of issues, these reports were not accompanied by any time-bound spatial plans or institutional frameworks to help departments implement programs and had limited success in linking public investments to actual development needs of the province. While the WB report clearly recognised the spatial dimension of development, it did not present an integrated approach to merge spatial and non-spatial data to inform policymaking. The reports would have had greater ownership and policy traction with more intensive and better structured consultations with stakeholders. A key element to ensuring successful implementation of reform is sustained engagement with mid-level bureaucracy at the heart of governance.

How will it benefit Balochistan?

For Balochistan, a spatial strategy will provide an organizing framework for integrated and long-term development planning beyond the annual budget making process. The need for such a framework is even more critical now to guide long-term economic recovery following COVID-19.

Nearly 0.36 million workers have lost jobs in Balochistan as a result of the lockdown. The agriculture sector which employs almost 37% of the province’s labor force has suffered the most. Restrictions on travel and transport in addition to closure of markets has disrupted an already-weak supply chain of close to sixteen of its minor crops. In the presence of continued disruptions, with an imminent second wave and weak road infrastructure, growers of fruits and vegetables may continue to find it difficult to transport and sell their produce in wholesale and retail markets.

While the provincial government is focused on facilitating transportation and sale of minor crops, long term measures are needed to rationalize spending such that supply chains remain intact to ensure food security and create employment by investments in ancillary infrastructure. The GoB is already inclined towards a more labor-intensive Annual Development Plan for the coming fiscal years but the kind of investments that would generate not only employment but also meet other development goals need to rely on robust data and analytical frameworks.

By using the right information policymakers will be able to make data-driven decisions such as which districts to prioritize for expanding road infrastructure, which regions are most conducive to a particular sector, how to create a value-chain throughout the province and link it to other provinces, and how to correct regional imbalances. Spatial data can also visually highlight pockets of inequities in terms of access to roads, transport etc. and help integrate investment decisions with outcome indicators such as food security, agricultural productivity, and job creation.

Going forward, a spatial strategy can also help rationalize the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) – the key instrument through which provincial governments earmark public spending on development – to ensure small, low-impact and individual-level schemes are replaced by high-impact labor-intensive initiatives that create employment and at the same time strengthen rural infrastructure for sustainable development and robustness of supply chains.

Next steps

To be successful spatial strategies need an institutional mechanism to link and coordinate development^[3] and are best developed in collaboration with key departments and stakeholders.  While the principal responsibility for the development of such a spatial strategy can rest with an overarching umbrella organization such as the provincial Planning and Development (P&D) department, other departments of government should also be involved.

And while the potential for evidence-based planning in Balochistan, especially by utilizing big data, spatial maps and technology to inform decision-making is huge and untapped, much of this data will not be readily available, especially in the form of spatial datasets. Much of it will have to be collected or generated. A spatial planning framework can help guide such data collation efforts.

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[1] In the 7th NFC Award share of provinces in the divisible pool increased from 49% to 56% during 2010-11 and 57.5% during the remaining years of the Award. The traditional population-based criteria for horizontal distribution of resources amongst the provinces was changed to a Multiple-Criteria Formula. According to this criterion, 82% distribution was made on population, 10.3% on poverty and backwardness, 5% revenue collection/generation, and 2.7% on inverse population density (IPD).

[2] Kalliomaki, H. 2012. ‘Towards Comprehensive Spatial Development in Europe: A Critical View from Finland.’ Planning Theory & Practice, 13:4, p.575

[3] UN-Habitat. 2009. ‘Global Report on Human Settlements 2009: Planning Sustainable Cities.’ London: Earthscan

Hina Shaikh is a Country Economist for the International Growth Centre (IGC) in Pakistan.

Bakhtiar Iqbal was a Research Assistant at the Consortium for Development Policy Research (CDPR).

Without a guiding framework, public spending in Balochistan remains ad-hoc, discrete, inefficient and weakly aligned with actual development needs of the province. The province needs a spatial approach that links investments with territorial/spatial realities towards it’s future development. Development decisions that come from a system based on a spatial strategy are inclined to be more inclusive and focused on integrated solutions, unlike what is achieved in a sectoral or departmental decision-making process. Often outcomes in one department or sector are linked to or are the result of investments in another sector. This kind of analytical thinking and ability to create linkages is not possible in the absence of an integrated Spatial Strategy. Underpinning the success of any spatial strategy is an underlying decision-making tool that can provide data and evidence needed to make critical investment decisions. The government of Balochistan is not only working towards developing a spatial strategy but has also requested researchers at the International Growth Center to help pilot its first ever decision support tool that will help operationalize this strategy.

Improving planning through Spatial Decision Support Tools

In a fiscally restrained environment, there is mounting pressure on provincial governments to on the one hand respond to the immediate needs arising out of the COVID-19 crisis and on the other continue to manage and contain costs of service delivery. Policymakers and planners are often beset by a number of competing and sometimes, conflicting demands around service delivery to meet the needs of the population. Ensuring coverage for a dispersed population especially in a province like Balochistan it is important to rationalize public investments and make allocations keeping in mind needs of both rural and urban areas.

Against this backdrop, there is a growing emphasis on well-informed public planning and perceptive resource allocation. For this to happen, sound decision-making needs to be grounded in reality, on-going and forward-looking, aimed at specific goals strategized along with the means to attain those goals. For such evidence-based planning, it is important that policymakers have access to data needed to inform these decisions. Essentially, they require a tool that provides the capability to draw on, and integrate, existing data and configure and model various options in service delivery allocations. A spatial decision support system (SDSS) that relies on spatial data can provide this capability.

What is a spatial decision support tool?

Spatial data is data that is connected to a location – in specific a place on the earth. Any kind of spatial decision-making uses geographic data to make decisions. An SDSS in particular merges spatial and non-spatial data, uses specific decision models and computes an optimal solution or many solutions along with trade-offs. Such a system can support decision-making around site selection, resource allocation, routing, service delivery/coverage etc and can be an important tool for planning by policymakers.

Such decision tools have become more feasible ever since big and open source spatial and non-spatial data has become increasingly accessible and begun replacing the more traditional decision support tools. Compared to such tools an SDSS relies far more extensively on relevant external data than just internal organization/administrative data. An advanced level of DSS, in addition to the provision of real time data, can also help in predictive and prescriptive data analytics by building scenarios, providing options and sensitivity analysis, towards an optimum investment decision.

As an example, relevant government departments across Pakistan typically conduct location analysis to build primary schools or basic health units. The inclusion of external data such as detailed road networks, demographic and utility data can greatly enhance the quality of decisionmaking to identify feasible locations. Such data would also provide a richer representation of spatial problems of considerable value to decision-makers. Without integrating these sources of data, governments may end up building a school where road infrastructure is poor. Moreover, integrated data sets also discourage politically driven investments and help align public investments with real development needs across different regions and sectors.

Piloting for Balochistan

The IGC’s first engagement in Balochistan supported the provincial government in developing the contours of a spatial strategy, what it would entail and what kind of data would be needed to support it. A natural progression in the process of implementing such a strategy was an IT-based Decision Support System with the objective of supporting evidence-based and responsive decisionmaking. Such a system can provide real-time integrated data for multiple sectors allowing policymakers to develop an improved and more comprehensive, picture of development needs, potential impacts of policy interventions, and undertake future investments.

A key development sector in Balochistan is infrastructure. Infrastructure planning is a complex task and involves large investments as part of the public expenditure portfolio and at the same time is acknowledged as a major factor for economic growth. Infrastructure spending also has important social, economic and environmental impacts.

The pilot SDSS for road infrastructure for Government of Balochistan was built using a range of information from multiple data sources (mostly open) to encourage a data-driven approach towards planning for road/infrastructure projects.

Using data effectively

The primary tool that helps planners untangle complexities of regional planning is data in the form of administrative boundaries, population clusters and densities, connectivity and mobility via roads, railways, and airports, natural resource distribution, industrial clusters, distribution of built-up area vs. agricultural land, as well as population demographics. This data on its own while telling in a number of ways does not allow policymakers to develop a complete understanding of the region and must be used in conjunction with maps and other forms of spatial analysis to allow spatial visualization and coordination. The SDSS for Balochistan relied on the following data sources.

	Data (Layers)	Source
1	Population	Block level spatial data from PBS
2	Road network (National Highways, Motorway, Intercity)	National Transport Research Centre
4	Railway line, Railway stations	Board of Investment Interactive Map (https://invest.gov.pk/interactive-map) Wikipedia, OSM, Google Maps
5	Airports	Board of Investment Interactive Map (https://invest.gov.pk/interactive-map), UN-OCHA, OpenStreetMap (OSM), Google Maps ,
6	Dry ports	Board of Investment Interactive Map (https://invest.gov.pk/interactive-map), UN -OCHA, OpenStreetMap (OSM), Google Maps ,
7	Human Settlements, land cover, built up area, forests etc.	Open source spatial databanks – Extracted from satellite images
8	Education facilities (University, College, Schools)	Education Department http://emis.gob.pk/Views/Gis/FrmGis3.aspx
9	Provincial Assembly Boundary	ECP https://www.ecp.gov.pk/frmGenericPage.aspx?PageID=3142, https://data.humdata.org/dataset/provincial-regional-constituency-boundaries-pakistan
10	Health Facilities (DHQ, THQ, BHU)	Health Department – A public dataset available on UN –OCHA spatial databank
11	Special Economic Zones	Board of Investment Interactive Map (https://invest.gov.pk/interactive-map) The locations digitized using google earth/map.
12	Administrative Boundaries (District , Tehsil)	Open source spatial databanks
13	CPEC Routes	National Highway Authority Interactive Map
14	Expenditure on road sector for last 10 years	P&D department, C&W

Typically, spatial analysis starts with a base map, or layer, upon which multiple other layers are applied. The base layer in this case were the borders of Balochistan, on top of which layers showing administrative boundaries at the district, tehsil, and where possible, mauza level, were applied. Visualizing data points such as population, income, housing stock, connectivity, industrial and agricultural growth, and the spread of public services such as health and education can enable policymakers to effectively gauge how the region is evolving, what is holding back economic and social development, and how future changes might affect inhabitants.

Mapping of human settlements, or population clusters was critical as there is limited analysis of population densities, distribution and human settlement patterns across Balochistan. A population density map using census data at the lowest administrative level will help the government identify the size and distribution of population clusters, evaluate the most appropriate unit for service delivery, and plan for compact growth in the future. Overlaying population data with other data layers (housing, health, education) further help the government develop appropriate strategies for service provision, infrastructure development, and long-term consolidation/growth. Likewise, a population growth map with projected population figures, breakdowns by age can support government’s future planning efforts.

The interface is usually a simple dashboard that allows multiple levels of access to different categories of users. The pilot system can allow policymakers visually see how services are being distributed across the province.

By generating simple heat maps, it is also possible to see which districts have the most spending on road infrastructure projects.

More complex analysis can also be performed. The pilot SDSS provides data to simplify the process of decision-making around investments linked to road infrastructure projects. It does so by assigning a score to a potential scheme across a list of criteria. A summary version of such a scoring system is displayed below.

This will then produce a summary result like this. By setting a threshold, the score can help decide whether this spending is worth considering.

Challenge ahead

Existing data would only be beneficial if it can be combined with new primary data, and many policy questions will only be answered by combining new data with existing data such as demographics. It is unlikely, however, that much of this data will be readily available, especially in the form of spatial datasets across all sectors. As result, most of this will have to be collected or generated by using tools such primary and secondary data collection, image processing, remote sensing and use of Big Data generated by cellphone usage, and geographic information system (GIS) based digitization to demarcate tehsil and mauza boundaries.

The size of the challenge that simply collecting and/r generating data represents can also not be understated. The key decisions here include how to collect new data, optimize use of existing datasets and develop skills and human resource capacity to not only collect and collate data, but also maintain and regularly update it. Even sharing, accessing and merging data from various departments can be a challenge. Data collection is also a costly process.

An important caveat that must be kept in mind while collecting data and developing the tool is that the benefits of more data do not always outweigh the costs. As such, all efforts at data collection must be guided by specific policy questions and must be supported throughout by stakeholder buy-in, fundamental the success of any policy tool that is meant to help government make better decisions.

Hina Shaikh is a Country Economist for the International Growth Centre (IGC) in Pakistan.