Resilience and Inclusion in Education – Bridging the Learning Gap

Since March 2020, schools across the world have either been completely closed, or  operated under strict COVID-related restrictions. This has affected 1.6 billion learners globally, resulting in substantial learning losses and plummeting enrollment rates (World Bank, UNESCO, UNICEF 2021). The lockdowns left almost 50 million children in Pakistan and 12 million children in the province of Punjab out of school (Zakaria 2020). By the third school reopenings (September–October 2021), 21% of adolescent boys and 8% of adolescent girls in Punjab had dropped out of school. Those who remained within the schooling system incurred major learning losses. A study by the Punjab Examination Council indicates a decrease in the academic performance of Grade 5 children in Punjab in 2020. With an increase in dropouts and substantial learning losses, there is a need to chart future steps to recovery. This webinar aims to outline how dropouts can be reintegrated into the schooling system and how learning losses can be overcome with an underlying focus on technological and innovative solutions.

Why have so many children dropped out of school?

There are several reasons for the increase in dropouts.

  1.  First, income losses incurred during the pandemic left families financially vulnerable, due to which many children were forced out of school. Many students, particularly boys, also had to enter the labour force prematurely to make up for income losses, resulting in a higher dropout rate for boys (21%) as compared to girls (8%) in Punjab.
  2.  Second, lockdown measures kept families housebound, increasing the gendered burden of work; girls spent more time doing household chores instead of studying. This can encourage parents to keep their daughters at home even after school reopenings, particularly in a cultural milieu which puts a lower value on girls’ education.
  3. Third, many students were not able to continue learning through remote learning programs (TeleSchool and TaleemGhar) due to a lack of access to technology and the absence of conducive learning environments at home. This has made catching up difficult, resulting in many families opting not to send their children back to school (Geven et al., 2022).
  4. Fourth, many families have also opted to engage their children in religious education, which many consider an alternative to formal schooling in Pakistan.

Has remote learning worked to reduce learning losses?

In addition to the issue of dropouts, COVID-19 has also resulted in learning losses for those that remain within the schooling system. While the government launched a distance learning program early in the pandemic, its uptake has been limited. In Punjab, by the time schools reopened in September–October 2021, only 8%  of girls and 2%  of boys were engaged in distance learning (Geven et al., 2022). There are multiple reasons for the resistance to remote learning uptake. Some of them are listed below:

  1. Access to technology is severely limited in Pakistan, especially in remote regions, and within disadvantaged groups. According to the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2017, only about 15% of households of the poorest quintile owned a television. Comparatively, within the wealthiest quintile, around 96% owned televisions. Access to the internet and smartphones is even more unequal; only 12% of Pakistani households have access to the internet.
  2. Even where households have access to technology, devices may have to be shared between family members. Additionally, most houses lack spaces which are conducive to learning which make it difficult to keep students engaged with distractions around.
  3. Most curricular content is scripted in Urdu, which can make it inaccessible to families fluent only in regional languages.
  4. Due to COVID-related income shocks, many boys may be prematurely pushed into the labour force, which can limit the amount of time dedicated to learning.
  5. Girls are expected to do household chores. Since school reopenings in September 2021, girls spent about twice as much time as boys on family care (Geven et al., 2022).
  6. Societal attitudes towards watching television have also impacted uptake. A recent study noted that television in Pakistan is considered to be a medium to access entertainment, which adds to the hesitation in its use for education. Some fathers also prohibit their daughters from accessing television (Malik et al., 2022).
  7. Alternatives like private tutoring are costly, and can only be accessed by relatively advantaged groups.

As a result of these factors, students have undergone learning losses amounting to around 0.6 years of learning-adjusted schooling, according to early estimates (Geven and Hasan 2020).

Percentage of people who had watched the TeleSchool transmission
Source: Gallup Pakistan, 2020

How have other countries re-integrated students into the school system and mitigated learning losses?

Following are some models of recovery adopted in other developing countries.

Tackling Dropouts: To address the issue of increasing drop-outs, several countries have initiated back-to-school campaigns to re-integrate children into the schooling system. In Kenya, community-based household mobilizations led to 96 percent of learners eventually re-enrolling. Additionally, in Mexico and Brazil, governments have adopted conditional cash transfers, tying cash support to families to school enrollment.

Overcoming Learning Losses: Similarly, to overcome learning losses, many countries have adopted some form of remedial learning.  In 2020, the Philippines government established summer schooling for students who had received a grade lower than 75 percent in the previous school year. While evidence on the effectiveness of such programs is still limited, interventions that focus on targeted instruction, with extended instruction time and condensed curricula are potential options to be explored for learning recovery (World Bank, 2021).

Building Resilience: School closures are not unique to COVID-19 and are likely to occur in the future as a result of climate-related disasters, conflicts, and public health emergencies. Remote and hybrid education is expected to continue after the pandemic (World Bank 2021). In case of repeated closures, strengthening remote learning systems is key. Many developing countries have employed multimodal strategies to ensure widespread access. In Peru, for example, the authorities have deployed a multi-modal strategy based on an assessment of the availability of different modes of technology and have used multiple channels like radio, television and the internet to stream educational content. Additionally, educational content has been created in nine native languages, making it more widely accessible . Moreover, telecommunication operators agreed to zero-rate the program’s core digital site so that students can access all available educational resources without paying for the bandwidth. This was combined with regular communication of weekly schedules for learning sessions, frequent teacher-student follow-up, and a strong monitoring system to understand the program’s coverage and engagement.

How can these strategies be implemented in Pakistan?

While cross-country examples can shed light on innovative strategies, Pakistan’s recovery strategy needs to be anchored in evidence, with considerations for capacity, budget constraints and other relevant factors.

There are no neat solutions to the losses faced by the education sector in Pakistan during COVID-19 but there are a few areas which require greater focus from policymakers. Some questions to be explored for future interventions are:

  • What strategies can be employed to re-integrate drop-outs into the formal schooling system?
  • What can an effective strategy for remedial learning look like in Pakistan?
  • How can we improve the current system of remote learning to build resilient systems by establishing learning continuity between the home and school environments?
  • How can government initiatives address gender-related inequalities in re-integration and learning loss?
  • How can stakeholders in the wider ecosystem be leveraged to provide learning solutions to address learning loss?

Sources:

  • “The State of the Global Education Crisis: A Path to Recovery”. World Bank, UNESCO, and UNICEF, 2021.
  • “Brief on Learning Continuity Amidst COVID-19”. UNICEF, 2020.
  • Geven and Hasan, “Learning Losses in Pakistan Due to COVID-19 Closures: A Technical Note on Simulation Results”. World Bank, 2020.
  • Geven et al. “SMS Girl Data Insights”. World Bank, 2022.
  • Malik et al. “Girls’ Lived Experiences of School Closures: Insights From Interviews With Girls and Mothers in Punjab, Pakistan” South Asia Gender Innovation Lab, World Bank, 2022.
  • Muñoz-Najar et al. “Remote Learning During COVID-19: Lessons from Today, Principles for Tomorrow”. World Bank, 2021.
  • Zacharia, Sharon, “Pakistan: TeleSchool and Taleem Ghar (Educational TV at home)”. World Bank, OECD, Global Education Innovation Fund, 2020.
  • “Remediating Learning Loss”, World Bank, 2021.
  • “Assessment of Students’ Learning Loss: COVID-19 in Punjab”, Punjab Examination Council, 2020.

Where Do We Go From Here? Education Sector’s Recovery from COVID-19

COVID-19 has left a deep gash on the already faltering education system of Pakistan. COVID-related lockdowns affected large chunks of the school-going population, leaving almost 50 million children in Pakistan and 12 million children in the province of Punjab out of school (Zakaria 2020). By the third school reopenings (September–October 2021), 21% of adolescent boys and 8% of adolescent girls in Punjab had dropped out of school (Geven et al., 2021). Those that remain within the education system have incurred major learning losses. As the economy opens up, it is important to think about the ways in which COVID has impacted education, and how the losses incurred can be overcome.

Why have so many children dropped out of school?

The increase in dropouts can be attributed to a number of factors. First, the pandemic has left families financially vulnerable, due to which many children were forced out of school. Many students, particularly boys, also had to enter the labour force prematurely to make up for income losses, resulting in a higher dropout rate for boys (21%) as compared to girls (8%) in Punjab. Second, lockdowns have increased the gendered burden of work. Girls spent more time doing household chores instead of studying, which can encourage parents to keep their daughters at home even after school reopenings, particularly in a cultural milieu which puts a lower value on girls’ education. Third, many students were not able to continue learning through remote learning programs (TeleSchool and TaleemGhar) due to a lack of access to technology and the absence of conducive learning environments at home. This has made catching up difficult, resulting in many families opting not to send their children back to school (Geven et al., 2022). Finally, many families have also opted to engage their children in religious education, which many consider an alternative to formal schooling in Pakistan.

How effective was Pakistan’s remote learning program?

While there is yet to be a comprehensive study on the extent of learning losses incurred during the pandemic, some recent studies shed light on the gravity of the situation. A 2020 study on the 2005 earthquake and its impact on learning outcomes reports that the closure of schools post-earthquake resulted in 1.5 to 2 years of learning losses, which could result in children earning 15% less in every year of their adult lives (Andrabi et al., 2020). Since COVID-related school closures are more prolonged, there are likely to be greater learning losses, at a larger scale.

In response to the onslaught of COVID-19, federal and provincial governments decided to air curricular content for K-12 (kindergarten to 12th grade) through television, as part of the TeleSchool and Taleem Ghar programs. However, its uptake has been limited due to a number of factors:

  1. Access to technology is severely limited in Pakistan, especially in remote regions, and within disadvantaged groups. According to the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2017, only about 15% of households of the poorest quintile owned a television. Comparatively, within the wealthiest quintile, around 96% owned televisions. Access to the internet and smartphones is even more unequal; only 12% of Pakistani households have access to the internet.
  2. Even where households have access to technology, devices may have to be shared between family members. Additionally, most houses lack spaces which are conducive to learning which make it difficult to keep students engaged with distractions around.
  3. Most curricular content is scripted in Urdu, which can make it inaccessible to families fluent only in regional languages.
  4. Due to COVID-related income shocks, many boys may be prematurely pushed into the labour force, which can limit the amount of time dedicated to learning.
  5. Girls are expected to do household chores. Since school reopenings in September 2021, girls spent about twice as much time as boys on family care (Geven et al., 2022).
  6. Societal attitudes towards watching television have also impacted uptake. A recent study noted that television in Pakistan is considered to be a medium to access entertainment, which adds to the hesitation in its use for education. Some fathers also prohibit their daughters from accessing television (Malik et al., 2022).
  7. Alternatives like private tutoring are costly, and can only be accessed by relatively advantaged groups.

How do we catch up?

In a recent webinar held jointly by the Consortium for Development Policy Research and the World Bank, measures for the recovery of the education sector from COVID-19  were discussed. Some important insights and considerations from the webinar were highlighted. First and foremost, there is a need to make sure schools remain open during future waves of the pandemic, which can ensure that there is no further damage to learning outcomes. Evidence suggests that transmission of COVID can be greatly limited with the use of masks, distancing and ventilation of classrooms. Additionally, the government must draft a comprehensive plan to re-integrate dropouts into the education system. In Kenya, low re-enrollment numbers led the government to appoint an inter-ministerial task force that led community-based household mobilizations. Over 96 percent of learners eventually re-enrolled. Conditional cash transfers have also proved effective in Brazil and Mexico in this regard (UNESCO, UNICEF and World Bank, 2021).

To address learning losses, children must be taught according to their current learning levels, regardless of the grade they are in. Under the current system, teachers are instructed to stick to the curriculum, without adjusting to the individual learning needs of students, which can exacerbate students’ learning ability in the long-run. Furthermore, governments must make an active effort to dedicate time in the academic calendar for remedial learning, either through extending school times or by allocating space in current timetables. In Kenya, the government announced a two-year accelerated “crash program” that adds a fourth term to the usual three-term school year by shortening school holidays (UNESCO, UNICEF and World Bank, 2021). To establish a remedial learning program, the government must provide teachers adequate resources and a structured plan which can help them address learning losses categorically. Underlying all these measures, there should be an effort to initiate dialogue between all stakeholders–parents, students, teachers, school administration, local leaders and members of the wider community to craft a recovery plan that is most suited to the community’s needs. In addition to this, care must be taken to address the needs of students from marginalized communities, who are often doubly burdened.

The education sector continues to pay for the price for uncertainty within the federal government. As the new government takes charge, tackling learning losses and re-integrating drop-outs must assume the highest priority.

Zohra Aslam is a Research Assistant at the Consortium for Development Policy Research

Desolation of Smog: Air Quality Crisis in Punjab

The scenes in Lahore look eerily similar to those of a sci-fi dystopian movie. A grey haze has descended upon the city. Lahoris walk around wearing protective face masks – not because of Covid-19 – this time, it is the smog which poses a serious health risk to the people of the city.

A worrying trend is in play in Lahore for the past few years. As the winter months approach, the city is wrapped in dense, unbreathable smog. The city frequently features in the list of cities with the worst air quality in the world, often topping the list during the winter months. This constantly deteriorating air quality poses a severe health risk to Lahoris who are exposed to the polluted air containing particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5), which are fine particles less than three percent the diameter of a strand of human hair, easily absorbable within the bloodstream and gravely risking health. A study conducted by Sanval Nasim (LUMS) and Faiza Sharif (GCU) highlighted that PM2.5 exposure increases the incidences of cancer and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases such as ischemia, myocardial infraction, asthma, and bronchitis.  A separate study conducted by Sanval Nasim and Mahnoor Kashif highlighted the impacts poor air quality has on the financial sector when impaired cognitive ability and mood changes due to exposure to polluted air affects investor behavior and can drive substantial variation in returns on the stock market.

So, while there is evidence of increased health and economic risks associated with poor air quality, why is it that Lahore and other cities of Pakistan continue to face this issue year in year out and why have government actions been ineffective in dealing with it?

Sources of Air Pollution

Presently, there is a lack of research on source appropriation for the existing poor air quality. However, one study carried out by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 2018 highlighted broadly the main polluting sectors to be transport (43% of total share in emissions), industry (25%), agriculture (20%), and power (12%).

Poor fuel quality and older automobiles with inefficient engines are leading sources of vehicular emissions. Annual rice stubble burning season which begins around the October-November period in Punjab is another leading source of smog as farmers across the province begin to prepare the crop fields for planting of wheat.

While we may be able to pinpoint the sources which contribute to poor air quality in Lahore and Punjab in general, there also needs to be an acknowledgement on the behalf of the government that its regulatory policies against these emission sources have been negligible and toothless in producing any tangible change.

Lack of Policy Implementation

A closer look at the existing policy to tackle smog and poor air quality will reveal that this issue is not one of lack of legislation or laws, rather a failure of governance. Detailed policy measures exist at both federal and provincial levels, but due to poor implementation the problem still persists. The mandate to control the various causes of air pollution fall under different departments, and bringing the relevant departments together to devise and coordinate a cohesive anti-pollution strategy is a major challenge. This inter-departmental lag contributes to regulatory deficiencies.

In the face of such failures, the air pollution crisis has been declared an emergency and the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has been forced to step in as a coordination department.

A case in point of this inefficient implementation is the Punjab government’s initiative to equip older brick kilns with modern zig-zag technology to reduce emissions. Converting brick kilns with modern technology across the province was no easy feat, as there were many non-conforming kilns which had to be severely fined to force them to adopt the new technology.  Additionally, lack of technically adept and skilled labour has also been a deterrent in the adoption of zig-zag technology. There is also the issue of incorrect categorization since brick kilns continue to be categorized as part of the cottage industry, which means that they are exempt from the policies and regulations pertaining to large scale industries, making it difficult to regulate them and encourage them to conform to modern technologies.

Vehicular emissions which are a major contributor to poor air quality need tighter controls too. The government has requested oil marketing companies to import Euro 5 fuel which is significantly cleaner and reduces emissions compared to the more widely available Euro 2. However, there has not been a revision of the fuel standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The 2016 fuel standards set by the EPA which were developed around Euro 2 need to be revised to Euro 5, so the discrepancy between word, letter and spirit is diminished.

State Responsibility

The burden and responsibility essentially lie with the state in this regard. The sectors that are responsible for their share of air pollution will almost always try to mitigate their costs rather than to reduce emissions, while the citizenry and civil society can, at most, serve supporting roles to create pressure for improved regulations. It is the government itself that needs to spearhead the required initiatives. There are examples which demonstrate lack of prioritization by the government such as when the Pakistan Environment Protection Agency (PEPA) mandated that the Pakistan Environment Protection Council (PEPC) convene at least twice a year, yet failed to do so in the past many years.

On paper Pakistan has excellent environment related legislations, but failure in implementation and lack of resource capacity does not allow effectively achieving the goals set by them. In an attempt to devolve powers to the provincial governments, the bureaucratic lag has been exacerbated where multiple departments have overlapping or cross-cutting jurisdictions which leads to inefficient execution of laws and regulations. Consequently, there is little accountability of which department is to be held responsible when regulations are violated.

There is a dire need to break this cycle of bureaucratic futility by redefining the mandates and jurisdictions of each department and how they may interact and support each other in effective implementation of laws.

Way Forward for Future Policy Actions

The Punjab Government in October 2021 declared smog a calamity and instructed the PDMA to take action against crop burning in the province to reduce emissions. The government also shifted all schools and private offices to remote work on Mondays till January 15, 2022 in hopes that the number of vehicles on the road will reduce. But again, these measures are neither sufficient nor appropriate to curb emissions in the province. The government must realize now that addressing crisis situations should not warrant a knee-jerk reaction such as closing down schools, rather it should have effective laws and regulations in place with a robust implementation mechanism.

Revision of Devolution of Powers – Empowering Local Bodies over Departments

Admittingly, there is considerable devolution of powers from the federal to provincial levels in the air quality policy landscape. The provincial governments have departments which in turn work with the district level administrators to ensure that rules and regulations are abided by. However, due to overlapping jurisdictions, contributors to air pollution and violators of environmental laws are able to escape fines which is why there is an imperative need for a local government structure that can take on a more hands-on approach in curbing emissions and clamping down on violators.

Comprehensive Automobile Legislation

Much of the data points to automobiles as a major contributor of emissions and pollution. As previously pointed out there is existing regulation of shifting to cleaner Euro-5 fuels across the country but that is only part of the solution. The preponderance of old vehicles with inefficient engines is equally responsible for emissions which is why the automobile legislation should focus on effective motor vehicle testing regime and a plan to phase out old/polluting vehicles. This can be done through incentivizing car manufacturers and banks in aiding citizens to finance new vehicles in place of their older vehicles.

Additionally, there should be a focus on public transport legislation whereby incentives are provided to citizens and organizations to take up public over private transport. To this end, the focus of the government should be large private companies and major emitters to shift all their employees to public transport.

The electric vehicle policy introduced in 2019 shows the government’s strategy for overhauling transport in the country in the coming years. However, this will only be successful when recharging stations become ubiquitous across the country, which is why oil marketing companies will also need to start incorporating electric vehicle charging ports at their fuel stations all over Pakistan.

Urban Policy and Design

The air quality crisis also needs to be viewed in the larger context of urban planning and land-use. There is a need to influence policy/decision making to consider environmental factors as part of the planning process. Pakistan requires a very solid, integrated green and sustainable urbanisation plan for the country which can then be filtered down to the provinces. It continues to allow cities to grow and central business districts develop without proper zoning strategies and without keeping in mind the ecological footprint of such development. Zoning regulations should clearly separate industrial areas from residential areas; business centers should be moved into SEZs.

The automobile policy is closely tied in with urban policy and currently, planning is personal transport/car-centric with no regard for environmental consequences. Promotion of public transportation, facilitating non-motorized transport, and imposing land use related costs for use of personal transport have to be factored into urban planning.

It is evident that tackling the smog and air quality crisis requires a holistic approach which combines effective legislation and stringent implementation protocols. At the same time there needs to be a realization on part of the government that the make-shift policy measures to tackle emergency situations is a regressive way of governance and that it ought to invest in strengthening its response system via a strong local body set up.

Sheheryar Khan is a Communications Assistant at the Consortium for Development Policy Research

This article is based on the discussion from a workshop organized by CDPR on Lahore’s air quality and the IGC report “Charting Pakistan’s Air Quality Policy Landscape”.

 

Income Inequality under Covid-19

The Covid-19 pandemic has come as an unprecedented shock to global social and economic systems with  significant cross-sectoral impacts. But not everyone has been equally affected by this, leading to a pattern of recovery from the pandemic which is unequal and inconsistent. While the health consequences of the pandemic are obvious, developmental impacts are less evident and indicate a larger long-term threat to inequality. Not only has suffering, poverty and vulnerability risen, income inequality has also gone up. Recent data shows a substantial increase in the wealth of billionaires and hence the distributional impact of covid-19 is significant. The highest income groups have experienced disproportionately high-income growth rates while the poor continue to suffer. This blog highlights key aspects of such inequality in a post-covid world and what governments must consider to mitigate or reduce its impact especially on the poor, marginalised and vulnerable.

A worsening situation

Even before the onset of the pandemic, inequality was an important policy concern for policymakers, donors and academics. However, Covid-19 has necessitated swift and immediate action to address inequality worsened by the pandemic. Tackling inequality is not straightforward as it is becoming exceedingly difficult to define what all it entails. Inequality is inherently a multidimensional and complex concept.

In most recessions the poor tend to be at a disproportionately higher risk and the recession brought on by the pandemic has been no different. It has decimated certain segments while leaving other segments completely unscathed. However, the economic impact of the recession caused by Covid-19 is unique in many ways. Prior to the pandemic, the poor had actually been performing better than the middle class in terms of economic growth, but the top 1% has done incredibly well and that is what creates most of this disparity.

The Covid-19 case is unique as the disease and the cure (including containment measures) both   adversely affect inequality. The elderly and people in high density areas (mostly poor) are more likely to be impacted by the health shock caused by the disease. Even the initial mitigating measures in the form of social protection handouts, emergency cash transfers and deferred utility payments etc, rolled out mostly in a blanket form, had a varying impact on the different segments of the population based on their pre-existing capabilities to withstand shocks. The on-going vaccine rollout also remains unequal as richer countries have overall higher access than developing countries, while within countries those residing in cities and with access to government facilities are getting vaccinated earlier on. Across these multiple facets of inequality each reinforcing the other, a pressing concern remains that their impact may compound in an exponential manner resulting in a massive rise in inequality.

The multiple dimensions of inequality and covid-19

The pandemic has impacted inequality in various manners and across multiple phases. We can classify three categories of these phases: Inequality of opportunity, inequality in the labor market and inequality stemming from state action.

Inequality of opportunity: This phase begins from inception where the circumstances of one’s birth dictate the opportunities they can access particularly in terms of health and education which are in part also dictated by geography. Such inequalities have worsened significantly due to the pandemic, particularly evident in the case of education where access to online schooling is unequal, whereas education delivery has become a major challenge due to lockdowns. And while the quality of education has suffered across all types of schools (public and private), it has been much worse for children from poor households. Children from more affluent backgrounds living in more infrastructurally developed areas have been able to continue their education due to availability of internet connectivity and multiple technological devices that have allowed children to attend online classes. The same is not true for their poorer, more rural counterparts. Access to education also has a gender dimension. It is predicted that 11 million girls might not go back to school post Covid-19. Such disparities in early opportunities can manifest in adult lives, making individuals less productive members of the society. .

Inequality in the labour market: Educational background is a key determinant of the kind of employment one is eligible for and for an individual’s bargaining power in the labour market. The pandemic has exacerbated existing disparities in employment. The ability to work from home is highly correlated with education and “pre-pandemic” earnings, and while daily wage earners have lost jobs and incomes, the richer segment has been better able to adapt to the changing job landscape. Typically, inequality in the labour market is most evident  across the urban rural divide. However, Covid-19 has impacted the urban centres significantly more than rural areas due to the nature of the disease and how it spreads. But within urban areas, it is the informal/daily wage earners and fixed salary workers with low-education qualifications associated with industries impacted by lockdown that remain most vulnerable to its impact. Hence increasing income inequality within urban areas.

Inequality stemming from state actions: The government has a responsibility to create a more equitable society. One way to do that is to ensure redistribution of wealth and earnings within society. There are various tools to help achieve this such as tax, transfer and expenditure policies that also include social protection measures. However, policymakers face several challenges in reaching out to those most impacted by Covid-19. Cash transfer programs such as the one under ehsaas Pakistan usually has a minimum threshold and criteria for eligible recipients, yet the segment most impacted by the pandemic includes daily wagers and the service sector in urban areas not targeted by the programs. This segment of the population is generally not ultra poor and often do not meet the selection criteria of such social protection programs. Hence, when shocks such as  Covid-19 occur it becomes difficult to rapidly and effectively target the needy.

More than growth

Good economic growth has the ability to insulate an economy and absorb negative shocks. However, growth alone is not enough, instead needs to be inclusive. This can be achieved by building strong social security systems.

Subsidies are used as a mechanism for redistribution and until recently, was the only tangible means for the public to verify what the government was doing for them. Now there are other, more efficient, ways to achieve this. Direct cash transfers, especially when done digitally, have enormous potential and significantly reduce the risk of leakages and wastages associated with subsidies. Yet huge amounts of subsidies are built into Pakistan’s budget and  the political economy of making radical changes to/reforming subsidy programs remains extremely complex. Hence, adopting large scale transfer programs in lieu of subsidies remains easier said than done.

Data Challenges

It is exceedingly difficult to quantify the magnitude of the impact of Covid-19 on income inequality due to the complexity of inequality and government structures which through redistribution and support policies can alter the spread of wealth within society. The problem is compounded by the lack of data which has become difficult to collect due to the pandemic. Hence accurate estimates about the impact cannot be made. The government needs to come up with rapid effective data collection strategies reliant on spatial and real time data – such as night lights data, mobile and satellite data – to promote more dynamic means of gathering information to inform policy such as the data collection done for Togo’s cash transfer program.  The one key learning from the pandemic has revealed the immense potential of the digital space. To realise this potential, access to the internet is essential. Governments should work to provide good stable internet connection at affordable prices.

A changing lens: from inequality to vulnerability

Growth covers up many of the imperfections in economies but due to the pandemic there hasn’t been any growth, rather many economies have gone into a very steep recession and with this recession many gaps and fractures in service delivery have become more pronounced. Many people have become newly vulnerable. The best way to deal with shocks like Covid-19 is by insuring against them and addressing vulnerabilities.. The concept of resilience is of extreme importance. The ability to bounce back from shocks requires more attention which is why the focus should shift from inequality in terms of poverty statistics and income measures to mitigating vulnerability. If every individual is equipped to fend for themselves and their families in adverse times, it can  eventually lead to a reasonably more equal society.

What it all boils down to

A key takeaway from the current pandemic is that the underlying persistent inequality needs to be effectively addressed to make countries more resilient to external shocks. Growth may be key to achieving this as growth has the ability to mask many of the stresses and imperfections in the economy, but while growth is the basis, the true antidote to inequality lies in effectual and well thought out distribution strategies. Governments must take this opportunity to invest in development.

Emun Hafeez is a Research Associate at the Consortium for Development Policy Research.

Environmental judicial activism: Bridging gaps in Pakistan’s environmental protection strategy

In low-income countries, the role of the judiciary in mitigating the effects of climate change often faces significant hurdles in resources, capacity, and political will. In Pakistan, however, the establishment of several judicial commissions are tackling these challenges by supporting climate research, developing proactive approaches to climate issues, and creating institutional frameworks to guide future action. This article highlights the state of environmental degradation and pollution in Pakistan, and traces the creation and successes of the various judicial commissions working to protect the environment.

The world has witnessed an explosion in climate change litigation since 2015, highlighting the role that effective judiciaries need to play in advancing climate action. In Pakistan, having realised that pertinent environmental issues in the country are not being effectively tackled, the judiciary is making concerted efforts to come to the government’s aid to ensure citizen wellbeing and safety. What began as a public interest litigation via a writ petition filed in 2018 (a type of legal tool for protecting citizens’ rights) has led to the creation of several judicial commissions which are making significant headway in affecting progress on environmental justice.

Pakistan’s judiciary steps up

A first-of-its-kind judiciary-government collaboration established the first commission, the Judicial Water Commission (JWC), in February 2019, and was set up by Mr. Justice Shahid Karim of the Lahore High Court (LHC), under the Chairmanship of Mr. Justice (Retd) Ali Akbar Qureshi. The JWC was initially created for the primary purpose of conserving groundwater levels and quality in Lahore, but its scope widened over time. A separate Judicial Environmental Commission (JEC) was later established and over time the two commissions became a joint Judicial Water & Environmental Commission (JWEC) overseeing the country’s key environmental issues.

Outside of high-income countries, the role of the judiciary in climate litigation is often limited and faces significant hurdles in resources, capacity, and politics. In spite of this, progress has continued and Pakistan is not alone in the region in advancing this type of judicial activism. India has engaged since the 1980s, where the judiciary successfully intervened in matters relating to improper drainage and toxic gas leakages in Madhya Pradesh, extractive mining in Uttar Pradesh, water pollution of the Ganga (River Ganges), and several other cases. In Bangladesh, while environmental courts have been established, further work needs to be done to ensure that they are proactive and fit for purpose.

The nexus of judicial activism and research
The JWEC Commission is actively involved in research efforts with internationally renowned energy/environment experts around rigorous and evidence-based policymaking. One such project led by Michael Greenstone (University of Chicago), Usman Naeem (Tufts University), and Sanval Nasim (Lahore University of Management Sciences), engages with Punjab’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and has recently begun interacting with the Lahore High Court and JWEC to design and pilot a study on emissions rating programmes to incentivise industrial plants to comply with emissions standards and maintain low levels of pollution. The study (currently underway) includes (a) third-party monitoring of firm emissions by EPA-certified emissions monitoring laboratories, (b) rating firm emissions levels using a five-point rating system, and (c) publicly releasing ratings data for selected firms via an EPA website and increasing public awareness. A key objective of this research is to assess the extent to which public disclosure of emissions ratings improves firm compliance and EPA’s enforcement capacity.

An environmental state of affairs

Pakistan faces several environmental challenges including air pollution, water pollution, and water scarcity. Today, Pakistan is amongst the top ten countries in the world identified as hotspots for climate impact – ranking eighth globally, and second-to-worst in South Asia, narrowly behind Bangladesh. Climate change will only intensify these challenges, highlighting the need for urgent action to protect the environment and its impacts on human wellbeing.

Water shortages and pollution

Reports from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) indicate that Pakistan could face absolute water scarcity by 2025 and become one of the most water stressed countries by 2040.In Punjab, 90% of the population relies on groundwater to meet daily needs. Intensive use in recent decades are leading towards depletion and other geological hazards, all the while deteriorating water quality. The construction of the Indian Madhopur and Thien Dams in 2002 has compromised the largest source of groundwater replenishment for the region, River Ravi.

On water conservation, JWEC has identified several sources of water wastage and pollution, and proposed and initiated strategies for overcoming them. By doing so it has successfully been able to conserve 23.85 million gallons of water per day and has prevented the water table levels in Lahore from further depletion. According to government data, between 2018 and 2020 the water table witnessed an insignificant drop of only 0.15 meters. Details of initiatives which have made this possible are given below.

Every drop counts

Managing Industrial Waste:

The JWEC ensured

  • Installation of 73 large- and medium-sized water purifier plants at Sundar and Quaid-e-Azam Industrial estates.
  • Closure of 400 industrial estates which were injecting wastewater and sewage directly into the aquifer.
  • 46 sugar industries are in the process of installing treatment plants.

Reduce and Reuse:

  •  Installation of 190 ablution water tanks in various housing societies, the largest of which is located at Data Darbar and has led to conservation of 192,000 gallons of water per day.
  • Water wastage at car service stations has been controlled by ensuring installation of 310 Car Wash Recycling Systems.
  • WASA and Lahore Development Authority were tasked to ensure domestic car washing was not done using unrestricted water supply
  • 17 of the 24 irrigation channels of the Lahore Branch Canal were unclogged leading to several large parks of Lahore being irrigated using surface water instead of ground water.
  • The JWEC has commissioned the construction of a rainwater harvesting plant as an underground reservoir with capacity to store 1.5 million gallons of stormwater. Stored rainwater and treated water from industries will be reused for irrigation and cleaning purposes.

Air pollution

Air pollution and smog have become additional alarming environmental challenges for Pakistan. According to the United States Air Quality Index, Lahore is now ranked as the most polluted city in the world. While the detrimental impacts of air pollution on public health and human capital are known, the implications on economic activity are still being understood. An International Growth Centre (IGC) study notes that on polluted days, human productivity can drop by an average of 6% and lists Pakistan among countries severely exposed to PM2.5, one of the most harmful air pollutants. PM2.5 concentration in Lahore is three times the WHO recommended threshold. The problem is not only a result of harmful industrial and technological practices, but is also exacerbated by governmental inertia and ineffectual policies.

The JWEC has established strategies to mitigate air pollution and limit further degradation of air quality, as detailed in the box below.

Out with the old, in with the new
A major achievement of JWEC is that all brick kilns have now been converted from traditional Bull Trench technology to newer, more energy-efficient Induced Draft Zigzag Kiln (IDZK) technology, similar to what has successfully been done in Nepal. In comparison to traditional brick kilns, IDZKs produce 25% more high-quality bricks using 30% less fuel and generating 70% less emissions. Lower emissions from IDZKs provide social welfare gains (read more about this technology and its economic and environmental benefits in this IGC study). JWEC also conducts random checks and seals, and fines any non-compliant brick kilns. Checks have also been placed on vehicular emissions (contributing 43% to smog). To control sale of substandard fuel (with high sulphur content – a major contributor to smog), 143 of 491 fuel stations inspected were sealed. JWEC also ordered closure of 233 smoke-emitting industrial units in Lahore. There is now a ban on use of polythene bags with fines levied on non-compliance. Other initiatives include sprinkling and mechanical cleaning of roads, installation of anti-smog towers on an experimental basis, imposing fines on stubble burning, and a review of the Transport Master Plan to limit traffic congestion.

Pakistan’s legal basis for environmental protection 

Environmental degradation is a violation of core human rights, affecting the health and wellbeing of individuals alongside the impact on agriculture, the economy, energy, transport, displacement, and migration. Environmental protections fall in the ambit of several UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which Pakistan is committed to achieving. Although the Constitution of Pakistan does not explicitly list the ‘right to environment’ as a fundamental right, in a 1994 landmark judgement (Shehla Zia vs. WAPDA) the Supreme Court held that the right to a clean and healthy environment was part of the fundamental right to life and dignity guaranteed in Articles 9 and 14 of the Constitution.

Building on the precautionary principle from the Shehla Zia case, a framework of environmental law and justice has evolved which led to climate justice in the 2015 Asghar Leghari case and 2021 D.G. Khan Cement case, further evidencing how judicial support for the environment is of instrumental value. The court is not only concerned with the preservation of human rights of present generations, but with the importance of ensuring intergenerational climate justice.

Way forward 

The JWEC should take measures to spread its reach beyond Lahore and target other cities across Pakistan. Given the magnitude of the environmental threat to the population and the country’s economic development needs, the successes of this new and larger nexus of government, judiciary, and academia must be heralded and ardently promoted. However, institutional efforts and academia must be supported by individual behaviours and actions. Going forward, we must educate ourselves on how to be better, more conscientious citizens of the planet.

This article originally appeared on the International Growth Centre’s (IGC) website here.