Category: Blog

This blog is part II of a two-part series, based on the findings from an assessment conducted for UN Women, of how the COVID19 pandemic is likely to impact existing gender inequalities in Pakistan. Part I of this series focused on how COVID-19 has exacerbated gender based economic inequality. This part will focus on the social costs of the pandemic for women in Pakistan.

It has now been over six months since the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Pakistan. The virus, and resultant efforts to control it, have had significant and far reaching socioeconomic consequences, many of which are only just becoming apparent. As discussed in our previous post, vulnerable communities such as women are most likely to be the hardest hit. As primary caregivers, women and girls face an increased burden of responsibilities within the household. They a) are responsible for household-level disease prevention and response efforts, which puts them at a greater risk of infection, b) carry out most of the household’s chores, c) are subject to emotional, physical, and socioeconomic harm. This post will discuss some of the social consequences of COVID-19 on women. Specifically, it will focus on the how the virus and the resultant lockdown has affected domestic responsibilities and gender-based violence (GBV).

Implications of Changes in Domestic Responsibilities: 

Women tend to lack agency over their decisions, their movements, and even how they use their time. The division of domestic labour is very gendered, and the general expectation is that domestic responsibilities are the purview of women.  According to UN Women, before the pandemic, women globally did nearly three times as much unpaid care and domestic work as men. During the lockdown, this disproportionate burden has increased even further. With entire families at home all day, basic domestic responsibilities – such as cooking and cleaning – have increased, which women are expected to fulfil. Additionally, in households with school going children, the entire burden of home-schooling is being handled by mothers.

This increase in responsibilities will have a long-term impact on women’s physical and mental health. The most direct way this impact manifests is that many women will simply not find the time to go out for even basic health services. Reduced mobility also directly limits access to health care for women, worsening health outcomes in the long run. Increased workloads at home coupled with a reduction or loss in income are likely to raise stress and anxiety levels for women, leading to deteriorating mental health as well.

Female labour force participation will also decline as in the face of increased domestic responsibilities.  Similarly, as their involvement in household work increases, it is possible that fewer girls will return to schools once they reopen, leading to a larger increase in school dropout rates for girls as compared to boys. This will result in a decrease in female education attainment and reduced female labour force participation in the long run as well.

Lastly, increased proximity of households to each other, coupled with decreased mobility and heightened stress, is likely to result in increased domestic gender-based violence. This is discussed in detail below.

Gender-Based Violence (GBV):

According to an April 2020 research conducted by Columbia University, gender-based violence increases during public health emergencies. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a distressing trend witnessed globally in the increase in domestic violence against women, or violence perpetrated against women by an intimate partner. In France, for example, cases of domestic violence have increased by 30% since the lockdown on March 17. Helplines in Cyprus and Singapore have registered an increase in calls by 30% and 33%, respectively. In Argentina, emergency calls for domestic violence cases have increased by 25% since the lockdown started (Source: UN Women).

The circumstances created by the pandemic and the prolonged lockdown create – and in existing cases heighten – instability and volatile domestic situations, which are a threat for all vulnerable groups, specifically women and children. Economic pressures and tensions in households have increased, which can often act as triggers for domestic violence. In many cases, with reduction in household incomes and higher living costs, the triggers for short tempers or violent behaviors go up. As these pressure points get aggravated, incidences of verbal and physical abuse also rise.

In Pakistan, up to 90% of women face some form of domestic violence – physical, emotional, or psychological – at the hands of their husbands or families (UNODC 2020). Violence against women, which is generally a taboo topic to talk about in our culture, has increased significantly during the lockdown period. According to helpline data released by the Punjab Unified Communication and Response (PUCAR-15) domestic violence calls have increased by 25% during the lockdown period in Punjab alone.

State responsiveness to reported complaints of violence has reduced even more than before, with the response system burdened or redirected elsewhere. For example, the Ministry of Human Rights created a helpline (1099) for reporting domestic violence incidents during the pandemic, but this helpline is reportedly not fully responsive. Additionally, complete or partial lockdowns reduce informal spaces of safety for vulnerable segments. Options of interim relief time and space (for example when an abusive partner goes to work) dry up as well.

Policy Implications:

With COVID-19 death rates – somewhat unexpectedly – falling, the lockdown throughout the country is being eased, and there is a gradual return to business as usual. However, there is still reason to be cautious, as there is little clarity regarding what has curbed the spread of the virus. The possibility of a resurgence and consequent lockdowns remains on the cards for the foreseeable future.  Realistically, a vaccine will not be available globally for the next 12 to 18 months. As uncertainty and stress remain rife, and people struggle to adjust to this new normal, women will continue to be at a greater risk for violence.

It is therefore imperative for governments and policy makers to prioritize vulnerable groups and their protection. Specifically, as schools look to reopen in September, the government – with the support of the private sector and civil society organizations – needs to ramp up efforts to ensure that girls return to schools. This can be achieved through mass and social media campaigns highlighting the importance of schooling and the long-lasting impact of denying girls their right to a proper education. Additionally, information campaigns coupled with monetary incentives can ensure regular attendance of middle and high school girls, who are most likely to drop out to earn money to offset losses during the lockdown and the peak of the pandemic.

It is also important to change gender norms, and normalize boys and men being equal partners in domestic responsibilities. Equitable division of household labour is critical to reducing the burden on women and protecting their physical and mental health.

Lastly, support systems need to be established and existing systems need to be revitalized for those looking to report or escape a violent domestic situation. There also needs to be more awareness about potential avenues for help for victims of violence, such as the 1099 helpline.

There is tremendous uncertainty around the long-term impacts of COVID19 on the world. As such, policy priorities will remain focused on health and economic impact of the virus for the foreseeable future. While that is understandable, it is also imperative that gender not be considered a periphery of the pandemic. Long term policy responses to the pandemic need to be calibrated through a gender lens, to ensure the protection of women and girls.

Sahar Kamran is a Project Manager and Maheen Saleem Khosa is the Manager Communications at the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives (IDEAS).  

The wholesale and retail trade sector is the largest sub-sector of services in Pakistan, maintaining a growth of 7.5% in the FY 2017-18 and contributing around 18.2% to GDP in FY 2019-20. Within retail trade, around 54% of the retail units are engaged in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco, and 80% of these are located in urban areas, employing 33% of the informal labor force. However, in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing and the lockdown situation has limited activity for contact-intensive businesses. As a result, the retail sector has witnessed a reduction in spending and has declined by 3.4% in FY 2019-20.

Figure: Growth of Wholesale and Retail Trade

Source: Ministry of Finance[1]

However, with the decrease in sales at physical outlets, retail businesses are increasingly moving towards e-commerce by re-igniting demand for their existing products and services online, diversifying into high-demand products and services during this pandemic, and investing in online payment methods and delivery systems. E-commerce in Pakistan has been growing as reflected by sales in FY18 estimated at Rs.99.3 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 92%. Sales in this sector were also predicted to increase to PKR. 158 billion in 2020, before the pandemic.

Figure: E-commerce Sales

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Falling Consumer Demand

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers’ buying patterns have changed and retailers have witnessed a decline in demand for their products and services. This mostly applies to fashion retailers, who had to close down their retail outlets during the peak lawn season, which coincided with the sudden COVID-19 lockdown. Billions were lost in terms of sales revenue and cash flow problems were exacerbated as retailers’ capital was tied up in incomplete or on-going projects.

Moreover, traditional retailers had to undergo a costly process of adapting their entire supply chains (from production to the customer’s doorstep) to align with the new conditions. Expensive technological infrastructure was developed, consultant services were acquired and safety precautions were taken. Some retailers also opted for innovative strategies using virtual reality and online streaming for product launches, others redesigned their online delivery models, while most retailers also offered substantial discounts to retain customers. There is also a move towards not only check-out free shopping, where customers can scan and pay for their shopping using a screen or smartphone app, but also touch-free shopping, which eliminates the need for physical interaction completely.

Government Regulations and SOPs

Even though the government has constantly engaged with the key players in the retail sector to design effective regulations and has also initiated relief packages for the unemployed, salary cuts and lay-offs have been unavoidable. While government SOPs with regards to COVID-19 have prevented the spread of the outbreak, the officially declared reduced operational hours for retail businesses has to a large degree constrained demand. This is because a significant customer base which preferred to visit outlets during later hours or on the weekend, has been dissuaded. This brings attention to the importance of collecting data on customer footfall in retail shops to help design more balanced policies to not only contain the spread of the virus, but also enforce appropriate operational schedules on retail businesses. This will help sustain some of the dwindling demand caused by the pandemic’s economic fallout.

Difficult Transition to E-commerce

While several traditional retailers have successfully transitioned to e-commerce to maintain and increase their sales revenue during the pandemic, online consumer buying patterns are inherently different.  Online consumers are actively looking for low-price or non-branded options. This is a major concern for traditional retailers, who are already incurring high costs at their non-operational physical outlets during COVID-19. It is also important to recognize that although, e-commerce sales increased during the lockdown, they declined when the lockdown eased – indicating that there are several structural issues that may impact long-run growth in this sector requiring consistent efforts. Although, the volume and value of transactions in the e-commerce sector increased during the first two quarters of FY 2020, they have fallen by approximately 100,000 orders in volume and PKR 3.1 billion in revenue during the third quarter due to COVID-19.

Figure: E-commerce Sales

Source: DYL Ventures

Consumer Trust Deficit

• Weak regulatory structure

Another key constraint to maximizing the potential of e-commerce is the lack of consumer trust in this sector. Almost entirely absent consumer protection laws and warranty policies, and their weak implementation explains why most consumers continue to prefer buying from physical retail outlets rather than online e-commerce stores.  The traditional retail experience allows consumers to inspect and assess the quality of the product or service, as advertised items sometimes do not match quality depicted in the description and picture online. Moreover, the government is also unable to protect consumers from fraudulent activity online. This also explains why e-commerce customers prefer Cash-on-Delivery (CoD) – it gives them the opportunity to back out of a purchase if the product or service is not of the desired quality. Hence, the government should design and ensure the effective implementation of laws that protect both consumers and retailers online.

• Limitations in Logistical Technology

Lack of consumer trust and perceptions about low quality of e-commerce products and services has also been triggered due to logistical failures in maintaining inventory depth in the supply chain and ensuring timely deliveries of purchased items. It is important to recognize that Pakistan lags behind in terms of logistics technology, which is essential for the development of e-commerce.

Furthermore, intra-city logistics should be identified as a prospective area of innovation and investment, considering the high level of commerce activity that takes place within cities. There is also an increasing need to move towards an Omnichannel system, which integrates distribution, promotion, and communication channels to provide customers with a unified, seamless shopping experience across all channels or touch points. This approach will ensure that stores have their own stock and serve as online shops or warehouses that sell directly to customers in their vicinity, leading to immense gains in the e-commerce sector.

Other options for retail sector growth include QR code scanning outside retail stores and at home (Amazon model), and transforming traditional market places with fragmented retailers, such as Liberty Market in Lahore, into online market places (Mall of Dubai vertical model).

Payment Systems

In addition to the lack of trust, consumers in Pakistan also rely heavily on CoD because other digital payment options are either not easily accessible or incur taxes. Many banks in Pakistan either do not allow online payments through debit cards or charge an additional amount on debit card payments. Brick and mortar retailers also tack on an additional 2.5% fee on the use of credit/debit cards, which further dis-incentivizes customers from shifting to digital payment systems.

Hence, there is a need to create incentives for consumers to shift towards digital payments. This includes reducing telecom taxes to encourage a parallel mobile top-up currency, lowering sales tax/introducing discounts for digital payments and accounting for elasticities in sales tax policy making. The integration of these recommendations in the tax policy design will not only encourage the use of digital payments, but will also increase tax-payer visibility for the government – effectively increasing the tax base and business activity online.

Moreover, in terms of international payments, PayPal equivalents should be created through close collaboration with the banking sector, especially to facilitate micro merchants. In addition to this, the government should also aim to remove the hurdles in documentation of exports to enhance the potential of e-commerce in Pakistan.

[1] According to the Pakistan Economic Survey of 2019-20, retail sector declined by 3.42% in FY 2019-20 due to COVID-19, indicating a negative growth rate in this financial year.

Kashaf Ali is a Research Assistant at the Consortium for Development Policy Research (CDPR)

This blog is based on the findings from an assessment conducted for UN Women of how the COVID19 pandemic is likely to impact existing gender inequalities in Pakistan. It is the first in a two-part series. Part I will focus on exacerbating economic inequalities, and part II will focus on the potential social costs of the pandemic for women in Pakistan.

COVID-19 has now spread to over 213 countries. Healthcare systems are stretched thin and are struggling to respond to this global health emergency. As it continues to spread, it is becoming increasingly clear that the virus – and efforts to mitigate its spread – will have dire economic and social repercussions. In a recent report, the IMF has stated that while the effects of the disease will be felt all over, vulnerable populations and disadvantaged communities such as the poor and women, are likely to suffer disproportionately from the outbreak of the disease.

Evidence from around the world suggests that men and woman are both equally likely to contract the virus. It is likely, though, that the economic and social costs of the pandemic will be much higher for women, and existing gender inequalities will be exacerbated. It is also likely that while the short term impact will be significant and will require immediate mitigation, the long term impact will roll back significant progress on gender equality. This is especially true for countries like Pakistan, where the economic and social gender balance is heavily biased in favor of men, and where welfare systems are weak or practically non-existent.

This blog takes a brief look at the impact of this pandemic on the economic conditions of women in Pakistan in the short and long term. Specifically, it will focus on Labor Force Participation (LFP), financial autonomy, and access to financial markets.

Labor Force Participation (LFP):   

Women face a significant loss in employment and resultant falls in income, particularly in the short to medium term. Women’s LFP is largely concentrated in less specialized, lower paying, and/or self-employed work. According to the Labor Force Survey of Pakistan (2017-18), the refined[i]  percentage of women in the labor force is 20.1% as compared to 68% for men. Additionally, the wage gap in Pakistan is significant, even within the limited sphere of employment in which women typically participate. Involuntary unemployment is also higher for females at 8.3% as compared to males at 5.1%. These factors make women’s livelihoods more vulnerable than those of men, and unlikely to absorb an economic shock of this magnitude.

Since the start of the initial government lockdown, this vulnerability has already manifested in the following ways:

1. Women employed by small or medium businesses and those working as domestic workers have faced pay cuts or layoffs due to their employers’ – actual or claimed – inability to continue paying their wages. A 2015 report by the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that there are currently 12 million HBWs who represent about 60% of the female workforce in Pakistan.. As part of the informal sector, these workers generally have low income security and minimal social protection, which makes them the most economically vulnerable in times of crises.
2. Small and homebased businesses have been able to generate little to no income due to businesses being halted or restricted by the initial lockdown. For businesses that do not have the capacity to go online or work remotely, this situation will only get worse. Most small businesses also do not have large cash reserves and may not be able to reopen post the lockdown/pandemic. Further, businesses that provide employment to other women (for example small beauty salons) will be unable to pay employees indefinitely under current circumstances.
3. A large proportion of working women are employed as teachers. Because of indefinite school closures, these women are now at home. Currently, public sector teachers continue to be paid. However, private sector teachers, especially those in low-cost private schools, are facing an increased risk of reduced or delayed incomes, or even being laid off.
4. Women employed in urban centres often travel large distances on public and private transport to get to work. Hindered mobility due to the initial lockdown caused an increase in workforce absenteeism, and subsequently reduced income due to lost wages for daily wage earners. As intermittent and smart lockdowns continue to be a reality for the foreseeable future, hindered mobility and increased absenteeism may also result in loss of employment for many.

In the longer term, the longer the pandemic and intermittent lockdown continues, unemployment will rise, the wage gap between men and women will rise even further.

Financial Autonomy:

Women generally have less ownership and control over financial and physical assets (house, land, etc). Even in cases where the actual asset ownership may lie with the woman of a household, it is likely that she may not be able to exercise much control over the assets. Financial autonomy for women – such as it is – is likely to decrease even further, particularly in the short term.  There are two major reasons for this:

1. With intermittent lockdowns and business closures a reality for the foreseeable future, vulnerable households with no savings will look to sell-off assets to weather the storm. Given the lack of control women exercise over assets, it is likely that the assets sold first will be those belonging to women.
2. Smaller assets such as gold, which are generally owned by women, tend to be more liquid and are therefore easier to sell in times of crisis.

Access to Financial Markets:

Over the years, Pakistan has seen an increase in the number of women taking microfinance and agricultural loans. According to a report by the World Bank, 59 percent of microfinance clients are women.  Often these microfinance loans are linked to the ownership and management of small businesses. In times of public health crises, as women are less fluid in terms of cash flows and savings, the ability to pay back loans may be affected. This could result in higher interest rates, penalties in repayment and reduced access to loans from formal associations in the future.

Conclusion:

For women in Pakistan’s labour force – especially those belonging to the informal sector – the lockdown due to the pandemic and subsequent decline in economic activities have resulted in significant losses. These have manifested in the form of lay-offs, closures of businesses, increased food insecurity and an overall loss of agency over their financial situation. It is imperative that small and female owned businesses be provided with short term loans to sustain their workforce, prioritize keeping their female employees and prevent further widening of the wage gap. Although the government has been making efforts to provide financial support to those most afflicted by the lockdown, many females do not have access to these relief efforts. Teachers in low-cost private schools for example, may not classify to receive government relief funds. Additionally, many domestic and home-based workers may not be registered within the NADRA database which further exacerbates the problem as they are completely invisible to the system. The government needs to initiate registration drives in order to provide women with CNICs. This would allow the government to have greater outreach to the most destitute strata of society, helping with disaster relief efforts in the future.

 

[i] the currently active population expressed as a percentage of the population 10 years and above

 

Sahar Kamran is a Senior Research Associate, and Maheen Saleem Khosa is the Manager Communications at the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives (IDEAS).  

Nadia[i] is a thirty-two-year-old ENT Specialist and mother of an eight-year-old boy. She works at a large public hospital in Lahore. As an essential worker, she has continued to work since the beginning of the government lockdown in Pakistan. When asked if and how the nature of her work had changed because of the spike in Coronavirus cases, she replied:

‘Work is work. This may be controversial to say, but I honestly don’t find it to be that different. We took care of sick people before and we take care of them now. I suppose there is an additional fear of getting sick now but that comes with the job. Actually, I’m more worried about what my kid is doing stuck at home all day.’[ii]

Musa (age eight) has been at home full-time since schools closed in mid-April. His school did not initially transition to online learning. The school, a private institution in Lahore for pre-nursery to grade six, encouraged parents to use this time to review the curriculum that had already been covered but no new material was shared. When it became clear that the lockdown was to continue indefinitely the school shifted to remote learning. WhatsApp groups were set up as the primary mode of communication between parents and teachers. Teachers were responsible for sharing learning materials daily. If there was any homework, it was the parents’ responsibility to work with their children to complete the work, scan it, and send it to the teacher within the specified deadline.

In conversations with Nadia regarding the transition to this new mode of teaching and learning, and how well she believed it was catering to the needs of her child, two themes emerged.

Stimulation, Engagement and the Learning Environment

Nadia believes having some schoolwork to complete during this unprecedented time is better than nothing, but she does not think the material the school is sharing is as challenging or intellectually stimulating as what was being covered prior to the lockdown. She feels there has been a regression in the difficulty of both mathematical concepts and reading levels.

‘Before the schools shut down, he (Musa) was comfortable with his multiplication tables. I could ask him anytime and he could tell me something like 7×8 on the spot. Now I’ll be surprised if he remembers his five table [sic]. But how can he be expected to remember? All the worksheets are asking him to perform single-digit multiplication and addition which he was comfortable with even last year. Yes, revision is important but for how long? If this is how things are now should we not also be moving forward and learning new concepts? If this isn’t possible then why do they insist on testing it?’

She also has concerns regarding keeping Musa motivated and engaged with his schoolwork.

‘It takes him maybe thirty minutes to finish the assigned reading and maths for the day. No other subjects have any work. I try to get him to do worksheets that I find myself on the internet and to read other books, but he resists. He thinks it’s unfair that I give him extra work after he finishes what he gets from the school. All he wants to do is watch YouTube videos. His tantrums have definitely been harder to manage, but I don’t know how to make it more interesting for him.’

Another aspect that contributes to a lack of engagement is the learning environment. Without his usual routine in which he interacts with his friends and teachers, it is hard for Musa to imagine that he is in school.

‘Mama says school is at home now but what kind of school is this? My school has a playground with a slide, and I play football with my friends. I also have my own desk, which is the tidiest one in the classroom, even the teacher said so. At home it’s just boring stuff. I can’t even beat Arsalan (referring to his closest friend) in the tests.’

Musa misses interactions such as playing and competing with his friends, and objects such as his desk and a slide.  He sees these as representative of a ‘real’ school environment. Without these representations, he has difficulty time accepting that his home is now also his school. This indicates that children remain motivated and engaged in learning, and ascribe value to schooling, not just via the academics inside a classroom, but also with the other activities, objects and interactions that constitute a typical school day.

The Gender Lens: Managing Professional and Domestic Responsibilities

In addition to her work, Nadia feels that she has inadequate time and support for her son’s schooling because of her domestic responsibilities have also increased. To adhere to quarantine Nadia no longer has domestic help come to her house. As a result, all the female members of her household are expected to take on additional household responsibilities.

‘My husband is working from home. He works long hours but even if he didn’t, you know how things are, the men aren’t expected to do the cooking and cleaning. I tell him – if you don’t want to do that stuff fine but – at least sit with Musa during the day when I’m gone and help him do his (school) work. But even that seems to be a woman’s job. The cook is the woman, the cleaner is the woman, the babysitter is the woman and the teacher is also the woman, I guess. Musa knows this too, by the way. He knows Papa time is playtime and Mama is the bad guy that will make him do his schoolwork and chores’.

These gendered expectations and distribution of work within the household are what a lot women in Pakistani households navigate daily. All twenty-seven members of the WhatsApp group for Musa’s class are women. Alongside additional pressure in terms of domestic and child-rearing responsibilities, mothers also seem to be the primary point of contact between students and teachers.

Given all these difficulties, Nadia concluded:

‘I’ve given up with the school now, I don’t take it as seriously as I used to in the beginning. And they don’t take it seriously either because even when I don’t send back assignments they don’t follow up. But that’s okay. I believe Musa is happier and learns more when he sits with his dado (grandmother) and listens to the stories she tells him about the Prophets. He also likes to take care of the garden with his Chachi (paternal aunt) and that teaches him about to grow plants and vegetables. Even I’ve gotten creative now and we have a game where he’s in charge of making the budget for grocery shopping and double checking that everything adds up on the bill afterwards.’

Implications for Policy

Nadia and Musa’s experiences provide valuable insight into the challenges of remote education service delivery. For young children, the distance between teachers and students has increased, both in terms of physical space, and the number of intermediaries between them. Young children are connected to educators through intermediaries such as parents and older siblings, without the possibility of being in the same classroom for the foreseeable future.  These intermediaries are also managing newfound personal, academic, and professional responsibilities and challenges.

If efforts in remote learning are to be successful, the perspectives of these stakeholders and intermediaries is vital.  Policymakers need to identify the systematic and recurring gaps in the chain of delivery. By knowing who in the household is responsible for relaying the material shared by teachers, policymakers and educators can tailor the content and mode of delivery to mitigate the constraints of these individuals. Knowledge of who these intermediaries are and how they experience and interact with infrastructures for remote learning also opens opportunities for capacity building initiatives that are tailored to their needs.

Nadia’s insights should also prompt policymakers to confront a higher-order question: What constitutes learning? Can the ways in which we have conceptualized learning and success in the past continue to be the same in Corona time, or even post Corona? Nadia felt that Musa learned more and was more engaged when routine household activities like grocery shopping, gardening, and informal storytelling were tweaked to include overt educational components. Through incorporating challenges, questions and prompts routine household tasks became important sites for learning and inquiry in a unique and novel way that piqued her son’s interest and curiosity.

All this begs the question, is the best way to take learning from the school to the home through worksheets, online assessments and lectures, which necessitate putting children in front of a t screen for extended periods of time? Or are history and politics better learned through the lived experiences of grandparents? Could the routine servicing of a car be a lesson in science and mechanics? Can an everyday chore such as separating and taking out the trash be a chance to learn about recycling and sustainability? Everyday life is rife with opportunities for children to learn across a spectrum of subject matter. The challenge for policymakers, administrators, teachers is to re-conceptualize and mobilize education service delivery in a way that recognizes and capitalizes on these opportunities. Rather than trying to reconstruct or impose the routine and rituals of a ‘regular’ school in the home, perhaps this pandemic should shift the focus of educators to reassess the tools, modes, and milestones that characterize traditional education, and subsequently work towards reimagining curricula and lesson plans to make them easier to integrate with home life. This could be the key to ensuring that children continue to feel engaged with their learning and parents feel equipped and able to work with their children and invest in their continued development.

[i] The names of participants have been changed. Names and identifying characteristics of any institutions mentioned have been omitted.

[ii] The quotes that are included in the text are translations. The actual conversations took place in a combination of Urdu and English.

Safa Kashaf is a Senior Research Assistant at the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives (IDEAS).

This blog is part of a series from the REAL Centre reflecting on the impacts of the current COVID-19 pandemic on research work on international education and development. It has also been published on the UKFIET website. 

The role of governments is key in mitigating the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on education delivery and outcomes. Effective response guidelines for governments stress the need to plan for long-term disruptions and strategic adaptation, and to coordinate, communicate with and support the education workforce, including and especially the head teachers and teachers. Much like the health response to the pandemic, an effective education response requires planning for phases. At the onset of the emergency, most countries mounted a rapid response by leveraging technology to start home-schooling mechanisms that can help cope with lost instructional time. The second phase requires policy planning for managing continuity of instruction when schools reopen, including ensuring children return to schools, instruction takes account of potential learning losses during time away from schools, and teachers and school leaders are fully supported as they work to realise these goals.

In this blog I consider what these guidelines mean for Pakistan’s large, diverse, federated education system. I argue that given the scale of operations and the nature of entrenched inequities, the key guiding principles should be to address inequalities and to strengthen decentralised governance and service delivery. Existing data, vulnerability assessments and rapid evaluations can help inform policy for more effective COVID-19 response.

Multidimensional inequalities define the shape of the challenges faced by education systems today

As a result of global school closures, it has become immediately clear that the children at risk of dropping out and those who are likely to experience the most significant learning losses are the ones from marginalised backgrounds. Poverty, gender and location are intersecting to entrench exclusion for already-marginalised children. Existing data sources help establish the scale and scope of the challenge.

Federal and provincial governments in Pakistan have moved quickly to start airing curricular content for K-12 via television channels. This is the correct strategy, given televisions are much more widely owned than radios: according to DHS 2017, 62.5% of the sampled households had a TV compared with 11% who own a radio. However, these averages hide stark inequalities. For example, in Punjab children in households in the poorest homes (only 17% of whom have TVs in their homes) are much less likely to be able to benefit from this policy initiative than children in the richest households (95% of whom have access to television). The numbers for Sindh are similar: 96% of households in the top quartile have televisions, 20% in the bottom quartile have televisions.

Accessing these opportunities and initiatives becomes more complex and unequal if priced technologies such as cable channels or internet and smart phones are used: Less than 1% of the poorest households sampled for Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) 2017 owned a computer, and while 82% of them owned a cell phone, only 4% had access to internet. District officials in Punjab share that internet and cable infrastructure is common and reliable in urban areas. Children further away from cities are much less likely to have access to instructional content sent through smart phones and aired on cable channels. Officials distinguish between parents who own smart phones and those who do not, a divide that is significant because many government school teachers in Punjab are relying on WhatsApp for communicating with parents. Parental occupations directly impact the opportunities children can take advantage of; during the crop-cutting season, many in rural areas are likely to be helping their parents harvest crops

The gendered experience of exclusion from access to technology and the increased burden of care on girls is a key dimension of inequality during this disruption. A recent blog about access to digital learning demonstrates that girls are much less likely to have regular access to any form of technology. Inequalities in access worsen for girls in rural areas and those in the poorest households. The increased burden of care in the households during the pandemic is much more likely to have hit girls the hardest, making it much more likely that they are effectively excluded from accessing COVID-response measures around education. Globally, women and girls carry out three times the amount of unpaid care and domestic work than men and boys, and this load is likely to have increased during periods of school closures and lockdowns. As COVID-associated health and economic shocks threaten to push millions into extreme poverty, girls are more at risk of dropping out of schools.

Learning losses are likely to be unequal also

Being in school matters for learning. Research on teaching and learning in government schools in rural Pakistan shows 10% learning gains after a year of regular schooling for children in grades 3, 4 and 5. These gains are threatened by school closures for reasons listed above.

The World Bank has outlined three scenarios of learning losses that governments should prepare for when schools reopen:

1. there is a loss of learning for all students due to school disruptions;
2. the lowest performing children fall further behind while the well-performing children move ahead – this is predicted based on the ability of the families to support children in keeping up with reading and writing and access to assets such as televisions and a good internet or cable connection;
3. there is a sudden and large increase in numbers of children for whom learning falls because of an increase in numbers of drop outs.

Government schools in Pakistan are likely to find themselves facing the second or the third scenario. Furthermore, provinces stand at various levels of capability for testing and also delivering learning gains. Pre-pandemic learning data show much less variation in children’s ability to read in local languages in the early grades across provinces (between 72 and 80% in grade 1 were able read letters); there is much higher variation in skills in higher grades (68% children in rural Punjab could read a story in local language, while only 40% in Sindh could do so) (ASER, 2018). This is true for Maths and English literacy as well.

It will be imperative to assess children when they return to school to establish learning losses, which are likely to vary for children given differential access to home support, technologies and differential exposure to health and economic shocks.

Medium to long term continuity will need to account for inequalities

Ensuring that policy responses address inequalities requires systems that can: mobilise quickly to collect information about the situation of teachers, schools, students and communities; repurpose their workforce to support new goals for coping in the crisis and managing continuity; plan for changes in instructional calendars and goals; make space for experimenting with new techniques that have proven to be effective for improving teaching and learning.

Data for identifying at-risk children

Strengthening of data systems has been one of the key areas of progress in education system development in Pakistan over the past couple of decades. All four provinces in Pakistan have well-functioning Management Information Systems (MIS) that collect data on operations of schools on a regular basis. These systems can be quickly repurposed for planning for COVID response. Tangibly, this requires individual and community level information about children who are more at risk of dropping out, those who aren’t able to access home schooling measures/technology, who are in households that have experienced health and/or economic shocks during this emergency. Given the proximity between schools and homes, teachers and head teachers are best placed to provide this information. District officials in Pakistan are confident that teachers and head teachers have (or can quickly gather) information needed for identifying different cohorts of children.

 Plan for strategies for resumption of attendance and reduction of drop-outs of the most at-risk

All four provinces in Pakistan have girls’ stipend programmes in place for maintaining enrolments through high schools. These may need to be expanded and the stipend raised (even if as a one-time measure) to increase the likelihood of girls returning to schools.

Education departments routinely rely on teachers to run door-to-door campaigns for school enrollment and for improving attendance at the start of a school year. However, placing the entire burden of the task on teachers and school leaders detracts from their instructional responsibilities. Given the scale and scope of disruption, teachers and school leaders must be supported by running a dedicated, large-scale coordinated, public awareness campaign when schools reopen after the COVID closures. This can be combined with targeted text messaging and personalised visits for children who are living in localities or households identified as high-risk.

Small scale rapid evaluations of various measures as they are implemented can help assess impact and correct course.

 Plan for assessing children to inform remedial and differentiated teaching strategies

The past decade has seen investments in building capacities for generating learning data in classrooms in at least three provinces. These foundations can be used to generate sample-based assessments for system-level diagnostics, combined with best practices in formative assessments that can help teachers direct instruction at an individual level.

Provincial education departments are working on readjustment of curricular goals for the year to make them more realistic, with advice from subject experts. Remedial instruction strategies, proven to be effective, can be combined with rationalised goals to ensure all children, particularly those excluded from instructional support during school closures, are able to catch up. Finally, this emergency presents an opportunity to test strategies that allow teaching children at the right level, rather than prescribed student learning objectives (SLOs).

It is imperative to incorporate the experience and voices of teachers in planning for instructional continuity. Chronic shortages in the system means teachers in government schools across provinces in Pakistan acquire experience and skills on the job for teaching multi-grade classrooms. These skills may offer a foundational concept that can be built on to equip teachers with effective strategies for teaching differential ability students in the same classroom.

Decentralised systems are likely to be more effective and resilient in responding to disruptions

Achieving the tasks set out above require very large education systems to be able to plan, repurpose and implement fairly quickly. It becomes clear in conversations with various stakeholders involved with government response to COVID-19 that provinces will be benefiting now from reform efforts undertaken in the past couple of decades. Effective response to emergencies is contingent on repurposing of existing structures that reach schools, teachers and communities, and are responsive to local contexts and problems. In so far as this is true, decentralised structures are better primed for the job. At the provincial and district level, this requires:

• capacity for data collection and utilisation (including data on at-risk children, teaching and learning);
• staffed structures in place that link higher tiers of governance with small clusters of schools;
• capacity to deliver on-site, continuous teacher training and support programs;
• flexible financing for schools.

Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) have made the most progress so far on reducing teacher shortages, building system infrastructure for on-site teacher training, putting in place the human resource and technical capacity of education departments at the district level to support teachers and head teachers, collecting teaching and learning data and utilising data for policy planning, and making financing available to schools. Punjab and KP have added this depth to their district level delivery and governance structures over the past decade: the tier of Assistant Education Officers (AEOs) in both provinces are managing between 10 and 40 schools. In Sindh in contrast, Talukka officers are managing up to 100 schools. Sindh and Balochistan may need to invest simultaneously in building these systems while planning for coping and continuance strategies. All provinces will need to empower teachers and head teachers as key actors in their response plans.

Real-time systems level analysis of structures and functions, as well as qualitative documentation of management and response practices at various hierarchical levels and across provincial contexts can potentially generate important insights about delivery and governance mechanisms that make education systems more resilient to crises.

Dr. Rabea Malik is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives (IDEAS) and an Assistant Professor at the School of Education, Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS).