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Funded by: SEED Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Team lead: Dr. Turab Hussain
Duration: 2022

The FCDO funded Sustainable Energy and Economic Development (SEED) program collaborated with CDPR to formulate a policy note on financing sustainable tourism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The  policy note explores how local resources can be mobilised to finance tourism development. It gives a preliminary assessment of ring-fencing revenue generated in the tourist areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for developing specific tourism related infrastructure and services to promote sustainable tourism in these areas.

 

Key Output

Policy Note

Financing-Sustainable-Tourism-in-Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

Funded by: IGC

Team Lead: Dr. Karrar Hussain

The Shia-Sunni sectarian divide within Islam has recently become of great importance economically and politically, not just in the Middle East but globally. We aim to implement a pilot to increase contact in a very natural setting (mosques) in Pakistan. We aim to and evaluate its effect on beliefs and preferences of mosque-goers about the other sect as well as their economic behavior.

Funded by: IGC

Team Lead: Dr. Kulsum Ahmed

Despite lackluster economic growth in recent years, Pakistan has succeeded in reducing endemic poverty. However, the poor remain vulnerable to economic shocks with an estimated 52% of the entire population vulnerable to falling back into poverty (Jamal 2021). One of the approaches taken by the Government of Pakistan to address this vulnerability is the PKR 1.4 trillion Kamyab Pakistan Programme (KPP) launched in October 2021 to support income growth of small firms and farms through concessional finance and health insurance.

We analyzed the sources of vulnerability differently, focusing on environmental risk factors affecting health and women’s contribution to household income. Existing data and papers were reviewed to better understand Pakistan’s current health burden linked with environmental risk factors and the situation with respect to gender inclusion, with a particular focus on vulnerable, low-income households. In doing so, the report also comes out with conclusions that go beyond KPP and appear to be foundational steps for any development program that strives to support Pakistan citizens to be healthier and more productive.

Key Output(s)

Women in Public Spaces Workshop (Key Takeaways)

Understanding Environment, Health and Income Linkages and How These Exacerbate Vulnerability of Low-Income Households (Key Takeaways)

Understanding Gender, Health and Income (Key Takeaways)

Air Quality Workshop (Key Takeaways)

Team Lead: Zain Chaudhry, Karrar Hussain, Attique Ur Rehman

Funded by: IGC

We provide the first estimate of a door-to-door political campaign by an incumbent politician targeting women on electoral outcomes in a developing country. Women voters are informed of the public service delivery work undertaken by the incumbent in his tenure. The campaign was randomized at the precinct level, allowing us to use official electoral data on vote shares and gender-disaggregated turnout. Our results suggest that in a highly competitive campaign, the vote share of the campaigning incumbent increased by 5%age points. This increase was primarily driven by women who were campaigned independently of their male relatives. In precincts where both men and women were mobilized, the effect is not statistically significant. However, women’s turnout in the election was unaffected.

Key Output(s)

Research Paper

Funded by: IGC
Team lead: Sanval Nasim and Ali Habib
Duration: 2021

Pakistan’s deteriorating air quality poses a serious challenge to it economic growth and development.

Recent evidence suggests that tailored policies—especially those that harness the power of information and transparency—offer new and better opportunities to mitigate air pollution in developing countries. Studies from India and China reveal that incentivising firms to disclose their emissions could improve air quality. Authorities in Punjab must explore evidence-based interventions if they want to reduce pollution and better manage air quality.

Focusing on Punjab and PM2.5, we propose to:

  1. Describe and identify gaps in the state of air pollution regulations;
  2. Map relevant institutions, their intersections and relationships;
  3. Synthesise the current evidence-based policy literature on air pollution and air quality management in similar settings; and
  4. Determine areas of research that would generate the most value to citizens and policymakers.

Key Output(s)

Final Report

Consultative Workshop

Air Quality Workshop Key Takeaways

The Revenue Mobilisation, Investment and Trade (ReMIT) is a 39-months (2021 – 2025) programme funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). The programme provides technical assistance (TA) to Pakistan to implement reforms for strengthening macroeconomic stability and improving conditions for high and sustained growth, mutual prosperity, job creation and poverty reduction. The Programme works towards supporting the Government of Pakistan, its relevant ministries, institutions, and departments to strengthen its tax revenue mobilisation reforms/initiatives; address investment environment challenges; facilitate trade and drive competitiveness by reducing the barriers to trade; and improve the macroeconomic policy and its management.

The Pakistan Development Policy Series is a series of discussions inviting debate on key development policy issues relating to Pakistan’s economic and social growth, with the aim of finding solutions through engaging multiple stakeholders including government representatives, leading specialists, representatives from the private sector and civil society.

Key Output(s)

How can Pakistan leverage the promise of services-led development?

Funded by: IGC
Team lead: Ali Habib
Duration: 2020-2021

Several countries have used emissions rating programmes to incentivise industrial plants to comply with emissions standards and maintain low levels of pollution. Such programmes function by using regularly monitored emissions data from major industrial plants to rate firms from the least compliant to the most compliant. Besides making environmental performance more transparent, these programmes create competition amongst industrial units to meet regulations and reduce pollution.

Evidence shows that disclosure of pollution information to the public enables efficient regulations. Providing reliable and transparent data carries additional benefits: it can mobilise the public and civil society as well as shareholders and investors to pressure industrial units towards better environmental performance. It can also force firms to comply with regulations as failure to do so might harm their reputation, risking sales and revenues.

We have collaborated with the Punjab Environmental Protection Department (PEPD) to pilot an emissions rating programme for select industrial units in Punjab. Using an experimental design, we will evaluate the impact of the programme on the following firm-specific outcomes:

  • Improved regulatory compliance;
  • Emissions reduction;
  • Adoption of better pollution control devices.

We will begin the experiment by regularly monitoring the emissions of Particulate Matter (PM) of our sample industrial plants. We will then randomly assign our sample industrial plants to a control group and a treatment group. Each plant in the treatment group will receive a star rating based on its compliance with PEPD’s regulations on emissions of PM. To test the impact of the rating programme, we will statistically estimate the average differences in the outcome variables between the treatment group and the control group.

 

Key Output(s):

Blog on Environmental Judicial Activism 

Funded by: IGC
Team lead: Tim Doberman & Usman Naeem
Duration: 2020-2021

A welfare state faces two fundamental challenges: targeting people who need support the most and delivering the benefits in a cost-effective manner. In some developing countries, weak data leads to poor targeting, while weak institutions lead to poor delivery mechanisms. This means that these limited benefits are often availed by the less deserving, leaving less behind for the poor.

Therefore, to meet social objectives and dole out support, developing country governments instead turn to subsidising common, visible goods such as food or energy. These subsidies, while offering some relief to the poor, often end up disproportionately benefiting those who are already well-off.

Pakistan’s energy subsidies are the perfect example. Vast sums go into subsidising the price of energy for consumers, mostly for the benefit of the rich. In Pakistan, electricity subsidies in 2019 alone amounted to 193 billion rupees ($1.25 billion), more than the yearly budget of Pakistan’s flagship income support programme for the poor ($1.16 billion in 2019 for the Benazir Income Support Programme, or BISP). Many of these subsidies are unfunded line items on the government’s budget, draining the coffers of utility companies. Buffeted by widespread theft, the result is a perpetual debt crisis for the sector, leading to an erratic supply of electricity throughout the country.

This project aims to construct an unprecedented administrative database that links income and energy expenditure data across all segments of Pakistani society. The database will serve as the basis for determining future targeted transfers, notably a proposed energy subsidy overhaul that would replace existing price-based subsidies with income-based transfers.

Funded by: SEED Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Team lead: Dr. Ammar Malik
Duration: 2021

The FCDO funded Sustainable Energy and Economic Development (SEED) program collaborated with CDPR and IGC Pakistan to formulate a policy note on stimulating Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s urban economy. The policy note examines the state of urbanization and urban economy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the policy actions that the province can undertake to enhance industrialization, empower local economies and bridge the gap between large scale infrastructure development and social welfare.

 

Key Output(s)

Policy Note

Stimulating the Urban Economy in KP

Infographic – Stimulating the Urban Economy in KPK

Funded by: PBC
Team lead: Nadia Mukhtar
Duration: 2021

This study titled “Unleashing the Potential of Pharmaceuticals in Pakistan” is part of the Pakistan Business Council’s (PBC) Make-in-Pakistan initiative. PBC commissioned this study to Consortium for Development Policy Research (CDPR) with the the primary objective of helping formulate a set of policy recommendations to allow the sector to attain its true potential.

This study, a first of its kind, provides an in-depth overview and analysis of the pharmaceutical sector of Pakistan to determine its future outlook. To date, no dedicated study on this sector has been undertaken, despite its economic significance. A comprehensive assessment is presented that could help Pakistan become a cost-efficient manufacturer of high-quality generic drugs, and potentially evolve into more lucrative product offerings such as super-generics and vaccines. This will require taking key steps today that could help its transition over the next 5-10 years. Through detailed analysis of the bottlenecks at every stage of the pharmaceutical value chain, the study determines the most binding factors that must be overcome to ensure this. This framework of analysis allowed the design of a policy from a competitiveness lens.

Key Output(s)

Report

Unleashing the Potential of Pharmaceuticals in Pakistan

Funded by: FCDO
Team lead: Hasaan Khawar
Duration: 2020

The provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) requested IGC’s support in collaboration with CDPR’s to help formulate its reform agenda around two important sub-national tax instruments, the urban property tax and sales tax on services. Such taxes are important sources of revenue for the Pakistan’s provinces. With the increased pressure on provinces to deliver during the covid-19 crisis, it has been pivotal to maximize the potential of such taxes to create much-needed fiscal space for improved service delivery.

 

Key Output(s)

 

Report

Reforming Sales Tax in KP

The existing sales tax legislation in Pakistan’s province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has significant weaknesses. The team has worked with the KP government on a report addressing various components of the Sales Tax on Services Act in KP.

Reforming Property Tax in KP

The report on property tax in KP acts as a policy guide for the KP government to carve out a framework for future reform to improve the performance of urban property taxes in KP.

 

Funded by: IGC
Team lead: Anjum Nasim and Ijaz Nabi
Duration: 2020

The chronic fiscal deficit report funded by the International Growth Center (IGC) analyses the taxation system of Pakistan at both federal and provincial levels and how tax collection can be maximized to achieve its revenue potential. The report addresses Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability issues by reviewing past incomes and comparing them with regional competitors. It also takes a look at the recurring balance of payment crises faced by the government and how the government can regulate its expenditure efficiently.

Key Output(s)

Report

Addressing Pakistan Chronic Fiscal Deficit 2020

A Framework for the Development of Balochistan Spatial Strategy

Funded by: IGC
Team lead: Hasaan Khawar, Nasir Javed and Fizzah Sajjad
Duration: 2020

Balochistan is the largest province by area, with abundant natural resources, but it remains one of the poorest and most underdeveloped regions in Pakistan. This project focuses on developing a spatial strategy for development in Balochistan that can provide policymakers with information and tools through an organizing framework for long-term development planning as opposed to short-term yearly budget planning.

Key Output(s)

Report

A Framework for Development of Balochistan Spatial Strategy

 

Decision Support System for Road Infrastructure Projects

Funded by: IGC
Team lead: Nasir Javed and Ehsan Saqib
Duration: 2020-21

The International Growth Centre (IGC) at the request of the Government of Balochistan (GOB) carried out a study to develop a Spatial Development Strategy (SDS) to guide its development priorities and to maximize the efficiency of its natural, human, and capital resources towards overall development of the province. To ensure traction and uptake of the proposed spatial strategy, the IGC piloted a decision support system that can be used by government departments to help them make investment decisions across various sectors.

Key output(s)

Report

Decision Support System for Road Infrastructure Projects

Funded by: IGC
Team lead: Umair Javed
Duration: 2020

Public sector companies, licensed under Section 42 of the Companies Act 2017, were created to enhance the effectiveness of service delivery. This project scrutinizes the performance of public sector companies by specifically focusing on two companies – the Punjab Skills Development Fund (PSDF) and the Punjab Population Innovation Fund (PPIF) – and understanding how they achieved success where others did not. It examines the business models employed by PSDF and PPIF – their goals, objectives, performance metrics, monitoring mechanisms. The project also attempts to understand the pitfalls other companies ran into.

Key output(s)

Case Study

Leveraging Public Private Partnerships for Service Delivery

Policy Brief

Policy Brief – Section 42 Companies in Punjab

Funded by: FCDO
Team lead: Umair Javed
Duration: 2020

Political economy analysis at the sector level can be useful in helping to explain why some sectors have struggled to move from low value added to higher value added exports. This project enabled FCDO Pakistan’s Economic Growth Group to better understand the political economy of Pakistan’s private sector, specifically a range of priority sub-sectors that are exporting or have the potential to, with respect to the ownership interests of the ‘elite’. The CDPR team undertook the scope of drafting the analysis report and accompanying economic sector profiles to support the transformation of the real economy underlined by boosting exports and employment and reducing inequality.

Key Output(s)

Presentation

PEA Report Analysis Presentation

CDPR has collaborated with the World Bank in its Pakistan Development Policy Series 2021.
The Pakistan Development Policy Series 2021 is a series of policy talks inviting discussion and debate on key reform areas critical to Pakistan’s economic, social and development growth. Focusing on Income Tax, the second webinar invites leading specialists and representatives from government and the private sector to explore how Pakistan can address the issues faced in income tax policy and administration, and expand Pakistan’s currently narrow income tax base.
Key Output(s)
Event
Event 1: “Unlocking Pakistan’s Income Tax Potential”.
Infographic

Funded by: Pakistan Business Council (PBC)
Team Lead: Nazish Afraz and Nadia Mukhtar
Duration: 2019

The second phase of the China Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA) spanning 2019-2024 was finalized between the two countries in early 2019 and entered its implementation phase from January 1, 2020. Negotiated well, CPFTA2 should significantly improve Pakistani exporters’ access to the USD 2 trillion Chinese import market and thus help address the country’s ballooning trade deficit. To understand how CPFTA2 can help Pakistan’s exporters meet that objective, Pakistan Business Council (PBC) commissioned the Consortium for Development Policy Research (CDPR) to undertake a preliminary assessment of China’s tariff provisions in CPFTA2.

 

Key Output(s)

Report
Preliminary Analysis of Pak-China FTA Phase II

Funded by: IGC
Team Lead: Miriam Golden and Luke Sonnet
Duration: 2017

This project provides politicians in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province useful tools to gather actionable information about voter preferences over public goods and, reciprocally, provides voters high-value information about upcoming policy decisions.

The project is aimed at establishing potentially durable feedback linkages between voters and elected representatives that gives politicians more information about voter preferences, thereby allowing them to be more responsive. Improved responsiveness, in turn, potentially increases the likelihood of reelection for politicians who operate in a political environment that is highly unpredictable and characterized by disadvantages for the incumbent party.

 

Key Output(s)

Report

Improving political communication: Results from a Pilot Field Experiment in Pakistan

Funded by: IGC
Team Lead: Ehsan Ullah Choudhry and Antonia Marasco
Duration: 2016 – 2017

This project undertakes extensive empirical analysis to explore the lucrative opportunity for Pakistan to lower barriers to trade, not only with India in the East, but also a number of countries (including China) in the West and North, which are accessible via westward land routes. East-West liberalization of Pakistan’s international trade could lead to a large expansion in imports and exports, and have a major impact on Pakistan’s economy.

This project has quantified the effects of East-West trade liberalization and explored the payoff available from this policy.

 

Key output(s)

Report

Pakistan’s international trade: the potential for expansion towards East and West

Funded by: IGC
Team Lead: Danish Khan
Duration: 2018 – 2019

This research project analyzes what are (if any) ‘wider economic benefits’ of new road networks on a local economy. In Pakistan, it is commonly noted that construction of new road networks are influenced by political actors to facilitate their favorites. But at the moment there is no concrete evidence how the a construction of new road networks alter dynamics of local political economy. This research has aimed to fill this void.

From a policy perspective, state (policy makers) should prioritize allocation of resources for road networks in those places where it can generate positive externalities for majority of the people, especially for historically disadvantaged and marginalized segments of society.

Key Output(s)

Report

Political Economy of Road Networks: What happens to a local economy when a new road is built?

Funded by: IGC
Team Lead: Turab Hussain, Syed Hassan and M. Usman Khan
Duration: 2016

The Rural Enterprise Study (RES) is an attempt to facilitate Punjab Small Industries Corporation (PSIC) to redefine its role as a business incubator/ coordinator that helps small firms in rural areas to improve their productivity and grow in size and scale. The RES is closely linked with research conducted by the International Growth Center (IGC) Pakistan and LUMS that are already engaged with PSIC on two projects. The first is an ongoing IGC-funded project, titled ‘Development of an electronic database of Industrial and Commercial Activity and a Spatial Analysis of Small and Cottage Industries in Punjab, Pakistan’, and the second is the upcoming ‘PSIC Diagnostic Study’. these studies with the eventual objective of producing a panel data set that serves as a quantitative tool to inform industrial policy across the Punjab.

Objectives of this study were to identify constraints and facilitate growth of small businesses, which in turn would contribute to overall economic growth. With a strong buy-in/ traction from PSIC and the Planning and Development Department (P&DD) of the Punjab Government, this study is also in line with the IGC Pakistan’s current research priorities and will help deepen its involvement in the Industrial Sector in the Punjab.

Key Output(s)

Report

The Rural Enterprise Study

Funded by: IGC
Team Lead: Ammar Anees Malik and James Witte  
Duration: 2018 – 2019

This project aimed to establish proof of concept regarding the feasibility and utility of conducting robust economic censuses in Pakistan’s cities and exploring and documenting clusters of economic activity within Peshawar’s historic inner-city (focusing both on sectoral/industrial composition of businesses and the supply/demand for skilled labor).

In the absence of any current and reliable datasets on urban spatial form and patterns of economic activity within them, Pakistan’s policymakers are making decisions on the basis of at best incomplete and at worse misleading information. Major public investments, e.g., bus rapid transit systems, are planned and implemented without any concrete understanding of the demand and supply of trips in key urban job markets. The report that future project planning in cities across Pakistan could enhance productivity if policymakers took into account underlying economic factors.

 

Key Output(s)

Report

Peshawar’s Historic Walled City: Firms, Mobility and Public Services

 

Funded by: IGC
Team Lead: Karrar Hussain
Duration: 2018

Reducing the gender gap in politics, especially on voter turnout, remains a challenge in much of the developing world. A lack of information about public service delivery performance of politicians aligned to women’s preferences is one the reasons behind the low voter turnout rates for women.

Before the 2018 general elections in Pakistan, a randomization of electoral areas was done and a political campaign was run to inform women voters about the public service delivery performance of the incumbent politician. Results suggest that women’s turnout in the election increased substantially as a result of the information campaign as did the vote share of the incumbent.

 

Key output(s)

Report

 

Funded by: Pakistan Business Council (PBC)
Team Lead: Hasaan Khawar and Nadia Mukhtar
Duration: 2018

The focus of this study is the ready-made garments sector, which is an important component of the range of textiles that Pakistan produces and exports. Given that production in the garments segment is the most labour intensive, least energy- and capital-intensive and generates the greatest value addition out of all the products in the textiles value chain (viz., yarn, grey cloth, finished fabrics and garments) and thus should play to Pakistan’s strength in resource endowment, what are the prospects for this sector going forward, especially in light of CPEC?

An in-depth exploration of the garments sector, which this study provides, is critical in understanding the state of overall industrial performance and Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) firm capability, as well as international competitiveness of Pakistan’s manufacturing sector. It will also help in the formulation of sector specific policies.

 

Key Output(s)

Report

Pakistan’s Readymade Garments Sector: Challenges and Opportunities

Funded by: IGC
Team Lead: Sanval  Nasim and Faiza Sharif
Duration: 2018

Conventional brick kilns—Bull’s Trench Kiln (BTK)—in Pakistan’s Punjab province are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions and harmful particulates which exacerbate climate change and deteriorate ambient air quality, respectively.

The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has recently introduced a new kiln technology—Induced Draft Zigzag Kiln (IDZK)—in Nepal which is more energy efficient than conventional kilns. ICIMOD statistics suggest that IDZKs produce 25 percent more high-quality bricks, use 30 percent less fuel, and generate 70 percent less emissions compared to BTKs.

 

Key Output(s)

Report

Investigating the Environmental and Economic Benefits of Energy Efficient Brick Kilns

 

Funded by: USAID
Team lead: Turab Hussain
Duration: 2018 – 2019

The SME sector in Pakistan employs around 80% of non-agricultural labour force and significantly contributes to the value-addition in manufacturing, total exports, and the country’s GDP. Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority’s (SMEDA) 2007 SME policy attempted to provide support to the SME sector in terms of easing regulations for doing business, providing improved access to finance, human resource development and technological upgrades, but due to coordination bottlenecks, its implementation failed. A revised SME policy that addresses the sector’s current challenges and opportunities is required, which is based on consultations with various intra-governmental departments, private sector organisations, and drawing from existing studies on the SME sector from organisations such as the Pakistan Skills Development Fund (PSDF) and donor-funded research.

The draft report was shared with the Ministry of Industries and Production (MOIP), Government of Pakistan which eventually resulted in the approval of the SME Policy 2021, now available online.

Key output(s)

Report

SME Policy Final Report

Funded by: UNDP
Team lead: Suleman Ghani
Duration: 2018 – 2019

Given the restrictive scope of civil servant trainings provided by the National School of Public Policy and Civil Services Academy, a training programme covering the entire civil servant base across all the grades is crucial to enhance coordination between top tier officials and frontline public servants for improved coordination across and within government departments to improve public service delivery. The formulation of an effective training framework for public sector employees requires creating institutional capacity to undertake this task, such as identifying needs for capacity development, making financial commitments, coming up with legal and regulatory frameworks, instituting processes to constantly review training curricula to keep it relevant and robust, identifying of training resources, etc. In order to inform decisions and reforms in these areas, a technical review, based on a rigorous scientific methodology of the existing structure, its gaps, and future prospects is proposed for a Training Needs Assessment (TNA).

 

Key output(s)

Report

Funded by: DFID
Team lead: Faisal Bari
Duration: 2017-2020

An evaluation of DFID’s Punjab Education Sector Programme (PESP) is being undertaken in collaboration with Oxford Policy Management (OPM), Institute of Development Economic Alternatives (IDEAS) to gauge the progress of the programme and gauge coordination and implementation bottlenecks for devising a revised action plan where required. CDPR is playing an intrinsic role in the entire process by carrying out the stakeholder mapping and creating the communications strategy to identify, assign and measure the contribution each counterpart.

Key Output(s)

Blog

Implementing Complex Reforms: The Roadmap Approach in Pakistan

Public Finance to Improve Outcomes

 

Infographics

Are More Children Going to School?

Are Schools in Punjab Giving Quality Education?

How Is Money Being Spent on Education in Punjab?

Education Reforms and Community Perceptions

District Education Management

 

Policy Brief

Policy Brief Inclusive Education For Children Report Final

 

Survey

How Well Are Children Learning In Punjab’s Schools: Key Findings From a School Survey

Report

Final Evaluation Report for PESP2

Funded by: IGC
Team lead: Masooma Habib
Duration: 2016-2018

This study responds to a request by the department of education, government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan, to assess how the incentive structure for teachers and administrators can be improved to enhance student learning. The study will make recommendations based on findings from the national and international literature and analysis of data available in KP followed up by focus group discussions with department officials, administrators and teachers in the province. High performing schools will be identified to draw insights into the learning process and apply those to low performing schools. An assessment of the statutory rules will be made using this framework, regarding incentives to identify the core rules that would affect absenteeism and therefore learning outcomes.

 

Key output(s)

Report

Funded by: International Growth Centre (IGC)
Team lead: Hasaan Khawar
Duration: 2017

Leveraging CPEC for Punjab’s agricultural development first requires identifying the key complementarities between Pakistan’s supply and China’s demand so that investments are curtailed within those areas of agricultural development. This will enable the mapping of a canvas of opportunities in agriculture for Punjab vis a vis CPEC. CPEC is one of six routes along which Chinese investment is going to be carried out. CPEC’s long term plan includes a priority to agricultural improvement for reducing rural poverty. Through CPEC, Punjab government’s aim of increasing the growth rate from 2.1% to 7% can be achieved by 2020 by improving the quality of agricultural output to match international benchmarks. Access to resource optimizing technology and technical know-how will be given to farmers, in particular, water-saving machinery and support to revitalize low-yield land. Improving agricultural productivity, encouraging farmer-centric delivery and achieving private sector led growth, can be achieved through CPEC.

Key Output(s)

Report

Agriculture Sector Opportunities in the Context of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Article

CPEC and the Opportunity for Agriculture

 

 

 

Funded by: International Growth Centre (IGC)
Team lead: Hasaan Khawar
Duration: 2017

CPEC is a platform for Pakistan’s provinces to provide Chinese firms an enabling business environment and access to markets, through infrastructure development and low cost labour. In exchange for these facilities, Pakistan will have access to Chinese financing, business experience and capacity, and technological upgrades. Pakistan must identify each province’s priorities towards industrial cooperation with Chinese investors based on their comparative strengths to set the direction of industrial development. Punjab’s priority lies in strengthening its private-sector led industrial development with a priority towards the textile-chain, garments sector. To establish a mutually beneficial industrial outcome, Punjab government must devise and implement policies geared to strengthen existing industries as well as incentivize promising industrial sectors with the aim of targeting market-failures and encouraging spillovers to make them sustainable and competitive in the long-run.

Key Output(s)

Report

Engagement with Punjab under CPEC: A Proposed Framework for Industry

Article

Local Industry and the CPEC Promise

Blog

Formulating an Industrial Policy for Punjab

 

Funded by: World Bank
Team lead: Suleman Ghani
Duration: 2016-2017

Pakistan’s tourism sector offers a wide-range of multi-cultural attractions from heritage sites to pristine natural beauty. However, the sector has not been able to garner adequate attention from tourists, despite Pakistan being the cheapest travel destination in the world. Currently, international tourism comprises 0.4% of Pakistan’s GDP, which creates a large space for developing and leveraging this sector to significantly contribute to Pakistan’s GDP. In order to harness the economic potential of this sector, a multi-sectoral approach is required to address the bottlenecks inhibiting the sector’s growth. These include targeted policy aimed to direct investment towards the renovation of dilapidated heritage sites and infrastructure to provide tourists safety and high quality accommodation and facilities. A tourism specific public-private partnership and better marketing strategies is essential to increase sector development competition, as well as to draw people to visit these places.

Key Output(s)

Report

Punjab Tourism for Economic Growth 

Article

Unfulfilled Promise of Heritage Tourism

 

Funded by: IGC

Team Lead: Ijaz Nabi and Naved Hamid

Duration: 2013 – 2016

Garment manufacturing, the least energy and capital-intensive kind of industrial activity, is not realizing its potential in Pakistan to grow the economy and create employment. To unlock the benefits of garments manufacturing on Pakistan’s economy, it must move up the value chain and compete in global export markets.

Key Output(s)

Reports

Phase 1 – A comparative analysis of the garments sector analysis

Phase 2 – Garments as a driver of economic growth

Phase 3 – Implementing policies for competitive garments manufacturing 

Policy Brief

Funded by: International Growth Center (IGC)

Team leads: Ijaz Nabi and Naved Hamid

Duration: 2015-2017

IGC-funded research in Punjab has helped digitize and analyze firm-level data on non-manufacturing economic activity across all 36 districts of the province. This information will contribute to existing survey data and can be used to assist researchers, as well as help develop more informed public policy.

Key Output(s)

Report

Spatial Analysis of Small and Cottage in Industries in Punjab, Pakistan

Blog

Understanding Punjab’s Rural Non-Farm Economy

Funded by: IGC
Team Lead: Ijaz Nabi and Naved Hamid
Duration: 2013-14

Punjab’s growth strategy, in tandem with initiatives of the Federal Government, provides an adequate safety net for the bottom quintile of the population and aims for equitable development outcomes. The Government believes that Punjab’s full potential will only be achieved by improving governance in the public sector, in collaborations with the World Bank, to support a subset of the Government’s agenda.

Key Output(s)

Report

Punjab Growth Strategy 2018

Funded by: Adam Smith International (ASI)

Team leads: Hanid Mukhtar, Rashid Aziz, Shahid Sattar

Duration: 2015

There is a positive correlation between energy consumption and economic growth. However, Pakistan’s overreliance on natural gas in its energy mix has caused it to deplete rapidly – gas reserves will finish by the next decade at the current rate of consumption. The unfettered provision of gas to new households and particularly to the fertilizer industry – the highest consumers of gas – has led to the wastage of this resource. Though there has been a significant reduction of gas in the energy mix, gas continues to be wasted through leakages in pipelines. Levying tariffs, inviting investors to bid on energy prices, and taxing gas providers on the difference between the price charged to consumers and the price of purchasing can create incentives to explore new sources of gas to increase its supply.

Key Output(s)

Report

Gas Report

Funded by: Adam Smith International

Team lead: Ali Habib

Duration: 2015

There are direct and indirect costs associated with lack of or no access to grid electricity in Pakistan. These costs can be mitigated through introducing efforts to utilize energy efficiently and conservatively to reduce the burden on the grid and increase access to electricity, particularly for low income groups, who are subjected to long hours of load-shedding. Switching to renewable electricity generation for irrigation pumps and using energy efficient appliances will require coordinating with the producers of these goods as well as with the citizens to incentive the supply and usage of low electricity consuming technology. Energy conservation techniques should be adopted from countries such as UK, Malaysia and China, who are optimally producing and utilizing energy to meet the SDG energy goal by 2030.

Key Output(s)

Report

Energy Saving in Pakistan

 

 

Funded by: Adam Smith International

Team lead: Hanid Mukhtar

Duration: 2015

Pakistan’s expenditure on service delivery investments are not only insufficient, they are also inefficient. Reasons are attributed to over spending on defence, industrial subsidies and the overall high domestic debt to which money is diverted towards. Additionally, the channels to finance investments in public goods are few. Ideally, financing such investments should be done through the revenues generated through prior development projects, but recovery of costs is slow. A reduction in completion time of development projects must be aimed to finance further investments and the need to improve fiscal management under devolution is required, with the urgent aim to increase property tax collections. Seeking increased foreign assistance to finance development projects is another viable option.

Key Output(s)

Report

Pakistan’s Public Expenditure 

 

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